Not Knowing If MLB Will Use The Universal DH In 2021 Is Stalling The Market For Some Players

The uncertainty meandering its way through Major League Baseball’s free-agent market right now is being propelled by not just the hundreds of millions in lost revenue teams are claiming after the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. It’s also because MLB has yet to give a definitive answer to one of the market’s bigger questions.

Will the National League have a DH next season?

The league and players’ union have yet to negotiate whether or not the DH will be universal in 2021 as it was last season. That means the market for some players who fit the role is being stalled – movement might get better as the non-tender deadline passes Wednesday night. 

And there are some notable names on that list. Nelson Cruz, who had a 169 OPS+ last season; Justin Turner, who slashed .307/.400/.460 with a 135 OPS+, Marcell Ozuna, who led the NL with 18 home runs and 56 RBI to go with a 175 OPS+; and Michael Brantley, who had a 126 OPS+. Just in that group alone, there’s easily more than $100 million on the table. It’s just a question of if NL teams can comfortably enter the bidding.

And there are others who might be worth a flier for NL teams if the position is in place next season – Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, Howie Kendrick, Edwin Encarnacion and Kyle Schwarber just to throw out some names. 

While none of these guys have signed, there are markets for them. They are just slow-moving right now, partly because there is no green light for the universal DH. 

That is something teams surely want to know before entering negotiations and building out rosters. The fact that it hasn’t been decided is baffling at this point. 

It’s obvious why this might be a hold up for owners. Guys like Ozuna, Cruz, Turner and Brantley aren’t doing those jobs on the cheap. While someone like Turner can still be serviceable in the field, he could be an ideal DH, like the others. And because these guys are so capable at the plate, they are top- and middle-of-the-order types, and owners would rather pocket the money it would cost to sign them.

The union has obvious incentive to want this. It keeps guys like Cruz in the league and able to cash in on his offensive ability. Cruz is 40, and if neither league had the DH, it’s possible he’d be retired already. But because he doesn’t have to play the field, he’s one of the best offensive talents on the open market this winter and will still sign a deal that should pay him no less than $15 million a year – we think.

Cruz is much more expensive than a utility player near the end of the bench. And if the NL does not have the DH in 2021 – it’s likely it will, by the way – that roster spot will be much cheaper for NL clubs. It would also mean his market is slashed in half.

The other problem for players if the decision does not come down until early next year is that teams could end up with more leverage over the players in negotiations. As camps get ready to open in February, if someone like Ozuna or Cruz is still unsigned, they may just take a one-year deal for below market value. That would be a bargain win for some team.

It’s likely the free-agent market picks up in December, but if a decision on the universal DH is not known this month, that could drastically change the market for the players mentioned.