What’s Next For Belarus? Risk Of A Russian Error

Belarus is a small country of close to 10 million people tucked away beneath the Baltic States and Poland. It is a buffer between the European Union’s eastern flank and Russia, and since the end of communism has continued to enjoy a close relationship with Russia. To that end, the widespread rebellion against the recent Presidential election has a touch of déjà vu in that it resembles the way many former communist states begun their transition to democracy.

Will he go?

At this stage, with a meeting of European leaders to take place on Wednesday, it looks very difficult for Alexander Lukashenko the President of some twenty-six years to remain in power. The fact that state TV is now on strike and that Lukashenko’s public appearances ae met with popular cries of ‘resign!’ suggests that the game is up. He may flee the country; he may timetable a transition to a new election or he may be forcibly removed.

He might also look to continue to use force, in the brutal fashion of recent weeks. Here though, there are signs that elements in the military and police are turning against him. In addition, any effort to co-opt force from Russia will likely end badly, either in terms of the human cost, or the cost to the credibility of Vladimir Putin if any military/paramilitary assistance he provides is repulsed either by force or more likely by popular disobedience.

In this way, what happens next to this small state is crucial for world affairs and has the potential to trigger a tactical error on the part of Russia’s President.

Russian error

Russia, which has seen several colour revolutions (i.e. Serbia) near its borders and the encroachment of NATO up to its front door, will feel highly uncomfortable with events in Minsk and beyond.

Equally, having blundered through the change of regime in Ukraine, the European Union will tread carefully with Belarus.

I expect their strategy to take the following shape.

First, the EU will issue a refusal to recognize last week’s election result that appears to have robbed Svetlana Tikhanovskaya of the presidency, followed by a call to respect fair and free elections and to propose a second, internationally monitored Presidential election.

Sanctions

Second, Brussels will issue targeted sanctions Lukashenko and his political entourage as well as senior regime and military leaders.

Third, some engagement with Russia over the future of Belarus to find a path that it can transition to democracy in a way that leaves it unmolested by Russia, the EU and importantly, NATO.

Fourth, the EU might well dangle the prospect of an economic development program and fund for Belarus, that is tied to its status as a democracy. The country’s economy is one of the most underdeveloped in Europe and has potential to benefit enormously from well directed investment. Russia should be involved in this project as a key partner.

Council of advisers

Finally, the EU should create an advisory council of mostly small, eastern states – from Latvia to Slovakia to Finland, who can share their expertise on topics ranging from the first steps in the transition to democracy to the pitfalls of an investment boom on a fledgling economy.

The European case will be bolstered if the US acts in concert with it. For now, the wild card is Russia’s next move.

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