Morning Consult Poll Shows Biden Lead Narrows Slightly Post-RNC

TOPLINE

The two main presidential contenders hoping for a big post-convention bump were likely both disappointed by one of the earliest post convention polls — a  Morning Consult poll released Saturday that said President Trump gained two percentage points among likely voters, a gain that’s within the margin of error, but showed Biden still leads.

KEY FACTS

what to watch for

With the two major political conventions over, the next big ticket event on the U.S. political calendar is the start of the debates. The Commission on Presidential Debates, which has sponsored the events since 1988, has scheduled three debates between President Trump and former Vice President Biden: on September 29, October 15 and October 22. The September presidential debate will be at Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland. The only vice presidential debate, between Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris, will be at the University of Utah, Salt Lake City on October 7.

key background

Political polls can vary greatly depending on who’s doing the asking. The website Real Clear Politics lists findings from two polls issued Friday with starkly different results. In one, from conservative polling firm the Trafalgar group, surveys taken before the Democratic convention showed Trump leading Biden 46.9% to 44.2%. After the Democratic convention Trump’s lead narrowed slightly to 46.5% compared with 45.6% for Biden, according to the Trafalgar Group. Meanwhile the Massachusetts Emerson College/WHDH poll, taken August 25 to 27, found the former vice president leading Trump by a whopping 38 percentage points — Biden  68% to Trump 30%. That one had a smaller sample size than the Morning Consult poll, 763, and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%. The fact that there were so many fewer undecided voters in the 2020 Morning Consult poll than in 2016, could help explain why support for each candidate did not budge much after their conventions. 

further reading

Trump Pulls Closer to Biden After RNC (Morning Consult)