Betting Odds Favor Republicans To Win Senate Seats In Georgia

Topline

Though Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are trailing in the polls, bettors are putting their money on the Republicans to retain their seats in the Georgia runoffs Jan. 5, maintaining GOP control of the Senate, just weeks after betting odds correctly predicted a Biden victory in the presidential election.

Key Facts

PredictIt gives Republicans around 70% odds of keeping control of the U.S. Senate, which will come down to the results in the two Georgia runoffs.

The odds show Perdue with a better than 66% chance of defeating Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, while giving Loeffler, a 61% chance of beating Democrat Raphael Warnock.

Polls show a different story, with polling averages from FiveThirtyEight showing Warnock with a 2.1 percentage point lead over Loeffler and Ossoff leading Perdue by 0.3 percentage points.

Betting odds correctly predicted a Biden win on the eve of Election Day, but were much less bullish on Biden than polls were, giving him around a 63% chance of winning while FiveThirtyEight’s poll-based model put Biden’s chances at 90%.

Odds are as of 3 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday.

Surprising Fact

PredictIt, which is one of the few legal U.S. platforms for betting on elections, did not see President-elect Joe Biden’s win in Georgia coming, even though several polls showed Biden beating President Donald Trump there. On the flip side, bettors overestimated how Democrats would perform in national Senate races, with the most popular bet on PredictIt showing an outcome where Democrats controlled 51 Senate seats. Democrats also had high expectations for Senate and House races, with the results widely being seen as a major disappointment. 

Key Background

Democrats need to win both the Georgia seats to evenly split the Senate 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris serving as a tiebreaking vote for Democrats if needed. Georgia has been the site of a political firestorm since the presidential election, after Biden became the first Democrat to carry the state since Bill Clinton in 1992. Trump has repeatedly made false claims of widespread voter fraud in the state, which has been denied by Republican state officials. The rhetoric from Trump has even sparked threats of violence, state voting systems manager Gabriel Sterling (R) said last week.

Big Number

$500 million. That’s an estimate on how much might be spent in advertising for the Georgia runoffs, which could be the most expensive Senate races in American history.

Tangent

Trump has thus far widely failed in legal efforts to overturn election results, but some bettors are still putting money on the president somehow winning in Georgia. Betting odds show Trump with a better than 10% chance of carrying the state—the same odds he also has in Pennsylvania.

Further Reading

Online Betting Markets Are More Bullish On A Trump Victory Than Polls, Here’s Why (Forbes)

‘Don’t Say Socialism Ever Again’: Democrats In Congress Push Back Against Lefty Messaging After Disappointing Election (Forbes)

Georgia Recertifies Biden’s Win After Trump-Ordered Recount Fails Again (Forbes)

Georgia Election Official Demands Trump Accept Results, Warns ‘Someone’s Going To Get Killed’ If Not (Forbes)

The Two Georgia Senate Runoffs Could Generate $500 Million In Advertising (Forbes)

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