Five Important Numbers From The Clippers-Lakers Regular Season Series

The Western Conference’s top seeds have finished their regular season series. The Lakers and Clippers can put the rivalry to rest for the time being, as they both focus on the seven remaining seeding games in Orlando. For the Lakers, their No. 1 seed is essentially in the bag. The Clippers, on the other hand, are focused on getting their full rotation in order with Montrezl Harrell still away for personal reasons and Lou Williams returning soon from a 10-day quarantine.

In what feels similar to the 2018 version of Warriors-Rockets, these squads are undoubtedly on a collision course. Regular season play isn’t always indicative of what will transpire in the playoffs, but let’s take a look at the five-most intriguing numbers that resulted from their four meetings:

1. Astronomical free throw rates

Specifically, this is about the agonizing process of defending both Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard. Which, by the way, isn’t it absurd the trio of Davis, Leonard, and LeBron James could have actually been a thing last summer? Goodnight. The league wouldn’t have any avenue of handling them unless the Warriors avoided their various injuries and free agency departures.

Anyway, throughout the four games, Davis was sent to the free throw line 47 times. For context, James Harden also had a four-game sample versus the Clippers and drew 56 trips to the line.

In Davis’s case, his free throw attempt rate (number of foul shots per normal field goal attempt) was .618 – an unbelievably high figure that greatly exceeds his .468 rate on the season.

Between Ivica Zubac, Montrezl Harrell, JaMychal Green, and Marcus Morris, the Clippers have tried many different options and coverages against AD. The problem with defending him, though, is that he’s blessed with various play-styles that make it increasingly tough for different matchups. If the Clippers deploy their traditional bigs, Davis is a pick-and-roll maestro that can be nearly impossible to stop when gets an open runway. Thus, it puts a lot of pressure on the rim, and he invites contact on those barrelling possessions.

If the Clippers decide to operate with a small-ball lineup, the issue becomes trying to force him off the low block. The ideal scenario for the Clippers is baiting Davis into taking face-up jumpshots from mid-range extended, but he’s so adept at putting the ball on the floor that it’s not exactly an easy thing to predict. He finds a way to create contact and earn himself freebies with his versatile skill-set and movement. It also doesn’t help when the Clippers get into the bonus early in a quarter, and then Davis smartly draws off-ball fouls – either with his timely cuts or rebounding efforts.

Leonard fits into this, too. Much like the Clippers have little-to-no answers for AD, the Lakers haven’t had the greatest success holding Leonard below his Finals MVP status.

In the four regular season games, Leonard drew 39 foul shots to 72 field goal attempts. It gave him a free throw rate of .542, which is actually Leonard’s third-highest rate against opponents. The only teams to put him on the line more frequently, relative to his field goal attempts? The Raptors (.560 in two games) and Timberwolves (.645 in three games).

The game within the game is always a fun dynamic. Seeing who can play better defense on these two gifted interior scorers, without bailing them out, is the number one thing to look for in the playoffs.

2. Clippers’ metrics with Kawhi Leonard on the floor

This is just cut and dry, really:

The Clippers have outscored the Lakers by 5.8 points per 100 possessions – not an astounding margin, but it’s also large enough to not brush aside – with Leonard in the game. In those minutes, their offensive production resembles what the No. 12 offense in the league has shown all year (a 111.3 offensive rating). Again, not the greatest, but also not to be ignored.

In the 52 minutes he’s rested, the Clippers’ offense experiences a seizure. It falls off a cliff. It becomes a flaming dumpster fire. Insert another wildly disastrous outcome here. While they have no problem getting enough stops to stay competitive, they have allowed way too many backbreaking runs by the Lakers when Leonard is on the bench.

In the playoffs, the obvious remedy is to stagger Leonard and George for the whole game, and ramp up Leonard’s minutes to 39 or 40 per game. In this season series, he was playing 34.9. It may really be that simple to win or lose on the margins.

3. Kyle Kuzma’s shooting

I don’t think I’ve seen a player’s perception shift as much in the first three years of their career as Kyle Kuzma’s. This season was more of roller-coaster for him than last year, and that didn’t seem possible.

Even if he was objectively bad for much of the regular season, Kuzma has at least settled into a concrete role for these Clipper matchups. He only played in three of the four games, missing opening night in October, but he knocked down eight of his 20 three-point attempts. Shooting 40% from three and making strong, decisive drives toward the rim is all they’ve needed him to do offensively. So far, the results against their biggest threat in the West could be viewed in a positive light.

In his 82 minutes of play, Kuzma scored 49 points (a rate of 21.5 per 36 minutes) and the Lakers were +21 with him on the floor. In the brief minutes LeBron will need to rest come playoff time, Vogel would be thrilled if Kuzma could replicate some of this against the Clippers’ bench units.

It will be easier said than done. If there’s one thing we know about Kuzma’s career thus far, it’s that consistency is rarely used as a descriptor of his play.

4. Corner vs. Above-the-break 3’s

Due to the Clippers’ preferred style of attack – heavy pick-and-roll usage with ISO play intertwined for their top two guys – there’s one huge benefit. With how much attention Leonard and George absorb when they creep into the paint, or hit their big men with pocket passes, the corners naturally open up.

When the Clippers’ ball-handlers are able to execute the correct passes to the corners, or their bigs make the right read in the short-roll situations, they are usually money from those spots. The numbers back it up.

In the four games versus the Lakers, they shot 25 total corner threes (6.3 per game). They nailed 52% of them, which is actually jarring. Doc Rivers should be finding ways to get more than six or seven of those type of looks each game, especially if he has Beverley on the floor.

For the season, Beverley is 28-of-67 (41.8%) on corner triples, and 47-of-113 (41.6%) on any three with at least six feet of space between him and the nearest defender.

On above-the-break threes in this matchup, the Clippers have grossly underperformed. They are 29-of-97 (29.9%) on any outside shots that don’t come from the corner, which is actually the sixth-lowest percentage any team has shot versus the Lakers.

This seems significant because those are the same type of looks Leonard, George, and Lou Williams strive to get throughout a game. With the way George has looked so far in the Orlando restart, though, it’s probably not a long-term concern.

5. Lakers’ post-up usage

In these matchups, the Lakers weren’t shy of their gameplan. Head coach Frank Vogel wanted to attack mismatches any time they appeared. For the most part, that was with Davis being guarded by a smaller or less agile big.

Against the Clippers, they posted up 17.5 times per game (not just for Davis, but any player). Among all of the teams the Clippers have faced, it’s the highest number of post-ups an opponent has tried. Even more than Denver (16.0), who has one of the most effective post scorers and passers in the league, Nikola Jokic.

Those 17.5 post-ups don’t necessarily mean it has led to that many shot attempts, to be clear. Post-up opportunities can lead to double teams and, eventually, passes to open shooters. Even then, the Lakers attempted 8.3 shots per game out of the post versus the Clippers. It was also the most of any Clipper opponent.

How effective were they? On those 8.3 attempts from the post, they converted on 57.6% – much higher than the Lakers’ season average on post-ups. In their 64 total games, the Lakers have only averaged 5.8 post-ups per game at a 47.8% clip.

You can say it’s their biggest strength against their local rival, and it might be their clearest path to excelling if these two meet in the playoffs. In the past, we’ve seen LeBron James hold off on his aggressive post techniques until the chips are down and his team is in jeopardy of losing a series. The construction of this Lakers’ team, now with Davis, has me curious what type of James we would see in those vital moments this time around.