How The 2020 NBA Offseason Clouded Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Free-Agency Outlook

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s free-agency clock is growing louder by the day.

With less than two weeks to go until the Dec. 21 deadline, Antetokounmpo has yet to sign his five-year supermax extension with the Milwaukee Bucks. On Wednesday, he gave an ambiguous answer about his contractual plans:

During Tuesday’s episode of The Jump, ESPN’s Zach Lowe said the Bucks “have gone kind of silent” about the likelihood of Antetokounmpo signing the supermax after their failed sign-and-trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic.

“I don’t know what that means,” Lowe added. “But I know that that optimism, I just haven’t been hearing that.”

If Antetokounmpo decides against signing the extension by the deadline, he’ll likely become an unrestricted free agent in 2021, setting the stage for a leaguewide feeding frenzy.

Some teams have spent years lining up their salary-cap sheets to ensure they’d have enough financial flexibility to sign Antetokounmpo if he does decide to test free agency. However, a few teams complicated their potential pursuit of him with the moves they made this offseason.

Based on the projected 2021-22 salary cap of $112.4 million—putting Antetokounmpo’s starting salary on a max deal at $33.7 million—here’s how the Giannis sweepstakes is shaping up heading into the 2020-21 NBA season.

Max, No Problem

Dallas Mavericks

While other Antetokounmpo hopefuls added long-term salary to their books this offseason, the Dallas Mavericks went the other way.

During the 2020 NBA draft, the Mavericks traded Seth Curry to the Philadelphia 76ers for Josh Richardson and the No. 36 overall pick (Tyler Bey). Not only was it good value for Dallas from an on-court perspective, but it carried the extra benefit of flipping the three years and $24.5 million left on Curry’s contract for Richardson’s likely expiring deal. (He has a $11.6 million player option for the 2021-22 season that he’s all but certain to decline.)

The Mavericks also worked out a three-team deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons, sending Delon Wright to Detroit in exchange for James Johnson. Wright has two years and $17.5 million remaining on his contract, while Johnson is on a $15.8 million expiring deal.

With those two moves alone, the Mavericks carved out an additional $16.4 million in cap space next offseason. Although they did add a bit of long-term money to their books with No. 18 pick Josh Green ($3.0 million next season), Trey Burke ($3.2 million) and Tyrell Terry ($1.6 million), they have only $75.3 million in guaranteed salary next season.

The Mavericks would have to decline Willie Cauley-Stein’s $4.1 million team option and renounce their rights to Richardson and their other free agents, but they should have enough financial wiggle room to squeeze Giannis in alongside Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis with a few minor moves.

Toronto Raptors

In early September, Yahoo Sports’ Vincent Goodwill reported “many in league circles” believed the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat were the front-runners to sign Antetokounmpo if he decides to leave the Bucks.

While the Heat complicated that with their offseason moves—more on that shortly—the Raptors were fiercely protective of their future cap space.

After Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol signed with the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers, respectively, the Raptors pivoted by signing Aron Baynes to a two-year, $14.4 million contract and re-signing Chris Boucher to a two-year, $13.5 million deal. Both contracts are fully nonguaranteed in 2021-22, which gives Toronto plenty of financial flexibility moving forward.

The Raptors did re-sign combo guard Fred VanVleet to a four-year, $85 million deal, but they designed the contract in such a way to maximize their 2021-22 cap space. He’ll earn $21.3 million this coming season and in 2022-23, but his salary drops to $19.7 million (the maximum 8 percent decline) ahead of the Summer of Giannis.

As of now, VanVleet, All-Star big man Pascal Siakam and rookie guard Malachi Flynn are the only three Raptors players with guaranteed money beyond this season. Norman Powell has an $11.6 million player option, while Baynes, Boucher, DeAndre’ Bembry, Henry Ellenson, Matt Thomas and Oshae Brissett are all on nonguaranteed deals.

The Raptors will presumably seek to retain OG Anunoby in restricted free agency next summer, but they likely won’t sign him to an extension before the Dec. 21 deadline to keep his cheap cap hold ($11.6 million) on their books. They’ll have no issue creating max space and then some for Giannis or another star as long as they don’t extend Anunoby.

New York Knicks

The New York Knicks likely aren’t a realistic landing spot for Antetokounmpo next summer. He doesn’t figure to leave a title contender for a team that’s still mired in a rebuild.

If the bright lights of Madison Square Garden do prove alluring, though, the Knicks are in position to pounce.

For the second straight offseason, the Knicks didn’t splurge on exorbitant long-term contracts. They brought in Alec Burks ($6 million) and Nerlens Noel ($5 million) on one-year deals, re-signed Elfrid Payton using their room mid-level exception ($4.8 million) and inked Austin Rivers to a three-year, nearly $10 million deal that’s fully nonguaranteed beyond this season.

At the moment, Julius Randle is the lone Knicks player earning more than $8.5 million this season. Only $4 million of his $19.8 million salary for the 2021-22 season is guaranteed, too. The Knicks will still have Joakim Noah’s dead cap hit of $6.4 million on their books next year, but R.J. Barrett will be their highest-paid player at $8.6 million if they waive Randle.

In other words: Not only could the Knicks carve out enough cap room for Giannis, they can potentially work their way into two max slots.

Work To Do

Miami Heat

The Heat’s interest in Giannis might be the worst-kept secret in the NBA.

In October, Shams Charania of The Athletic reported they were “preparing to go all-in” on the pursuit of Antetokounmpo next offseason. Their first few moves of the offseason appeared tailored for that strategy, as they re-signed both Goran Dragic and Meyers Leonard to two-year contracts with second-year team options and brought in Avery Bradley on a two-year, $11.6 million deal with a second-year team option as well.

However, the Heat’s Giannis dreams took a huge hit when they signed Bam Adebayo to a five-year, $163 million max extension.

Instead of keeping Adebayo’s $15.3 million cap hit on their books heading into the 2021-22 offseason, he’s now instead projected to have a starting salary of $28.1 million. That could rise even further if he makes an All-NBA team or wins Defensive Player of the Year or MVP. With Jimmy Butler set to earn $36 million next year, those two alone will gobble up more than $64 million of Miami’s cap space.

According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Heat’s only pathway to creating max cap space for Antetokounmpo would be salary-dumping Tyler Herro and KZ Okpala, renouncing their rights to Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn and declining their team options on Dragic, Bradley, Leonard and Andre Iguodala. Otherwise, a sign-and-trade becomes the most viable route to landing him.

“Someone who knows Giannis well” told Jackson that Antetokounmpo “would be more impressed by [the] Heat extending Bam than by making Bam wait a year for his money to get Giannis more easily,” so perhaps there’s some method to team president Pat Riley’s madness. (Antetokounmpo and Adebayo share agents, so that might have been a consideration, too.)

Either way, the Heat’s pathway to landing Antetokounmpo next summer is now far more complicated than it was a month ago.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Heat weren’t the only NBA Finals participant to nuke their 2021-22 cap space this offseason.

Fresh off winning this past year’s title, the Los Angeles Lakers had one main goal in free agency: re-sign Anthony Davis. While a 2+1 deal once seemed like his best option, his injury history caused him to pursue more financial security at the expense of maximizing his earning potential.

One day before Davis signed his five-year, $189.9 million max deal, the Lakers inked LeBron James to a two-year, $85.7 million extension as well. James originally had a $41.0 million player option for the 2021-22 season, but he’s now locked up through the 2022-23 campaign instead.

While those extensions secured the Lakers’ core for the next three seasons, they also all but obliterated their hopes of signing Antetokounmpo.

James ($41.2 million) and Davis ($35.4 million) will combine to gobble up $76.6 million of the Lakers’ cap space in 2021-22. Even if they somehow salary-dumped the rest of their roster and had 10 incomplete roster charges on their books (roughly $1.7 million each), they’d still be at roughly $93.2 million, leaving them less than $20 million away from the $112.4 million cap.

The Lakers hypothetically could sign-and-trade for Antetokounmpo, but after sending most of their top prospects and draft picks to the New Orleans Pelicans for Davis, it’s tough to see why the Bucks would agree. Unless Antetokounmpo threatens to sign with another team and leave the Bucks empty-handed, they should be able to find another suitor that can offer more in a sign-and-trade than the Lakers.

Golden State Warriors

Regardless of what they did this offseason, the Golden State Warriors were never going to have enough cap space to sign Antetokounmpo next summer.

Between Stephen Curry ($45.8 million), Klay Thompson ($38.0 million), Andrew Wiggins ($31.6 million) and Draymond Green ($24.0 million), the Warriors already have $139.4 million tied up in those four players alone. Add 2020 No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman ($9.2 million) to the mix, and they’re set to be well above the luxury-tax threshold even if they fill out the rest of their roster with minimum contracts.

Unless the Warriors salary-dump two of their highly paid players, their only realistic pathway to acquiring Antetokounmpo is a sign-and-trade. But much like the Lakers, the Warriors may have a difficult time convincing the Bucks to agree to a deal unless Antetokounmpo strong-arms them into it.

The Incumbent

Milwaukee Bucks

For now, the Bucks remain in the driver’s seat with regard to Antetokounmpo’s future.

Although their failed sign-and-trade for Bogdanovic might have dissuaded Giannis from signing the supermax right away, they did improve their roster this offseason by acquiring Jrue Holiday from the Pelicans and signing D.J. Augustin, Bobby Portis, Torrey Craig and Bryn Forbes in free agency. That’s a terrifying proposition considering they’ve finished with the NBA’s best record in each of the past two years.

Because the Bucks have Antetokounmpo’s Bird rights, they can re-sign him at any price point, even if they’d exceed the salary cap by doing so. (The same goes for Holiday, who’s likely to decline his $26.3 million player option for the 2021-22 season.) Their only concern is whether re-signing both will cause them to plunge deep into the luxury tax.

Although the Bucks have been reluctant to pay the tax in recent years, the prospect of losing Antetokounmpo and/or Holiday in free agency next summer should be a non-starter. If the cost to retain both is having to go into tax territory, so be it. Otherwise, their days as a championship contender may end after this season.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac.