It Turns Out COVID Isn’t Helping The Climate

Over the past two months, a popular talking point on the internet has been that CoronaVirus is nature’s way of fighting climate change – having concluded that mankind was incapable of acting to stop it. This has been prompted by the steep drop in carbon emissions resulting from the slowdown of economic activity.

But new data published today suggests that the COVID pandemic will barely make a dent on manmade climate change.

The first peer-reviewed analysis of the drop in carbon emissions during the COVID-19 lockdown concludes that daily emissions decreased by a maximum of 17% – or 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide – globally during the peak of the confinement on 7th April – a drop down to 2006 levels. In Europe, the maximum emissions drop was a far steeper -27%. This is the largest single annual decrease in absolute emissions since the end of World War II.

But while this drop might seem like a lot, it turns out it’s actually quite small when compared to the emissions accumulated so far, and compared to the emissions cuts needed to tackle climate change.

“Population confinement has led to drastic changes in energy use and CO2 emissions,” says Corinne Le Quéré, a lead author of the study by the University of East Anglia published today in the journal Nature Climate Change. “These extreme decreases are likely to be temporary though, as they do not reflect structural changes in the economic, transport, or energy systems.”

The study tested for three potential scenarios of easing out of lockdown later this year, and found that the most we could expect is a 4-7% drop in total emissions by the end of 2020. This is less than the 7.6% annual drop the United Nations says will be necessary between now and 2050 to avoid a catastrophic global temperature rise of more than 1.5^oC.

As climate scientist Glen Peters has pointed out, climate change is a cumulative problem and won’t be affected by a temporary phenomenon. The lockdowns may have felt like an eternity, but when it comes to the effects of climate change, it was only a blip.

Biggest Reductions

Emissions from surface transport, such as car journeys, account for almost half (43%) of the decrease in global emissions during peak confinement on April 7, according to the study. Emissions from industry and power together account for a further 43% of the decrease in daily global emissions.

Aviation is the economic sector most impacted by the lockdown, with passenger air travel having reduced by 90% in Europe in April. But it only accounts for 10% of the emissions reduction during the lockdown, because aviation accounts for a very small amount (3%) of global emissions in normal times.

The increase in the use of residential buildings from people working at home only marginally offset the drop in emissions from other sectors, the study concludes.

The study also looked at how government policies have made a difference, looking at 69 countries responsible for 97% of global CO2 emissions. At the peak of the confinement, regions responsible for 89% of global CO2 emissions were under some level of restriction.

The estimated total change in emissions as a result of the pandemic amounts to 1048 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) until the end of April. Of this, the changes are largest in China where the confinement started, with a decrease of 242 MtCO2, then in the US (207 MtCO2), Europe (123 MtCO2), and India (98 MtCO2).

The range of 4-7% for total emissions decrease this year depends on whether pre-pandemic conditions of mobility and economic activity return by mid-June. If they do, the decline would be around 4%. If some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of the year, it would be around 7%.

“The drop in emissions is substantial but illustrates the challenge of reaching our Paris climate commitments,” says Rob Jackson, a professor at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project who co- authored the analysis. “We need systemic change through green energy and electric cars, not temporary reductions from enforced behavior.

Fork In The Road

“The extent to which world leaders consider climate change when planning their economic responses post COVID-19 will influence the global CO2 emissions paths for decades to come,” says Le Quéré. But the current rush for stimulus packages and bailouts for airlines and industry could actually push future emissions higher than they would have been without the pandemic.

Climate scientists and activists are trying to seize the momentum and push the world in a new direction as we emerge from the crisis. But they are facing big headwinds – the intense desire to save the economy from complete collapse.

The recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be a return to business as usual. It must be an opportunity to push the advancement of the sustainable development agenda. 

A report published today by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) says that if the change in lifestyle patterns during the lockdown is harnessed to quickly develop new transport solutions, millions of new jobs could be created.  

 The report examines the employment implications of four “green transport” scenarios in 56 countries in North America, Europe, and Central Asia, comparing a ‘business-as-usual’ approach with accelerated expansion of public transport and the electrification of private passenger and freight transport.

The study finds that 10 million additional jobs could be created worldwide if 50% of all vehicles manufactured were electric. Other factors that could support job creation outside transport include increased spending on goods and services resulting from a reduction in spending on oil, and measures related to the production and use of energy.

Experts are collaborating to see how the conditions created during the lockdown could be extended in terms of emissions reduction without negatively impacting peoples’ lives.

Academics at Cranfield University in the UK are hosting a series of ‘digital sprints’ where scientists from across the world are collaborating in developing digital environmental tools that can help track, understand and predict the effects of COVID-19 and help lead to a greener post-pandemic future. They’re trying to determine whether there are patterns of behaviour during the lockdown that could be maintained, such as reduced transport and travel.

“These temporary benefits are unlikely to lead to a long-lasting environmental gain, however,” says Dr. Stephen Hallett, a professor in environmental informatics at Cranfield. “We need to develop solutions from these changes in behaviour that leads to a greener recovery from the pandemic.”