Poll Shows Trump’s Support Eroding Among His Base

TOPLINE

Amid the confluence of a global pandemic, an economic collapse and civil unrest over police violence, President Trump has lost significant ground with religious Americans and racial groups that will be pivotal for his reelection, a new poll found.

KEY FACTS

Key Background

Trump’s slippage among his core constituencies coincides with a broader polling drop throughout the coronavirus pandemic. Biden’s lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average has grown from 4.3 points in late February, the beginning of the outbreak, to 7.2 points now, and he consistently leads in critical swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump has struggled to gain a political foothold as cases of the virus have skyrocketed to nearly 2 million, with nearly 110,000 deaths, while the unemployment rate remains at a devastating 13.3%.

News Peg

Trump’s saving grace amid all his tribulations–Charlottesville, the Mueller probe, impeachment–has been his rock solid approval polling floor of around 40%, which has buoyed his reelection hopes despite never having achieved a positive approval rating during his presidency. But this poll casts doubt on just how unbreakable that floor is, showing that dire situations, and Trump’s poor handling of them, can shake his base’s faith in his ability to govern. While these voters may not defect to Biden, Trump may struggle to stoke their enthusiasm on election day, which would likely spell the end for his chances at a second term.