Council Post: Aviation Is The Driving Force Of Hydrogen

The worldwide aviation industry is going through unprecedented times as we speak. With the likely structural changes and increased government influence as part of historic COVID-19 stimulus packages, this time of change is a great opportunity for forward-looking leaders to put together a robust sustainability strategy.

In our previous article, we explained how hydrogen-electric aircraft will play a critical role in such strategies. Specifically, requirements for extreme energy density, high cycle frequency and lack of biofuel scalability will make hydrogen-based aircraft propulsion a virtual necessity in our carbon-neutral future.

This time, we want to discuss the reciprocal argument, as well: that aviation will become the main driving force that finally propels hydrogen into the mainstream as a transportation fuel.

Of course, hydrogen fuel has been touted for decades. From the very first fuel-cell vehicle — a hydrogen farm tractor in 1959 — to the work of major Asian automakers in bringing multiple production fuel-cell vehicles to the market, billions of dollars were spent on fuel-cell cars, only to see modern battery electric vehicles show up and, in just 10 years, outsell hydrogen cars 307 to 1.

Many have interpreted these results as the death knell for hydrogen mobility. From the high cost of the fuel-cell stacks themselves to the mind-boggling cost of the fueling infrastructure to replace all the gas stations, the barriers seem insurmountable.

So, is hydrogen dead for transport applications? Not so fast. We believe that hydrogen has a great future in transportation. It’s just that all the previous efforts focused on the wrong side of the market.

To understand this, consider various transportation modes in terms of energy intensity and utilization. Energy intensity is approximated by the percentage of fuel by weight in a vehicle, and utilization by the percentage of time the vehicle is in motion. These dimensions clearly map into the key differences between battery-powered and fuel-cell vehicles: energy density, recharge time and cycle costs.

The best production battery packs today have 200 WH/kg energy density, 1,000-2,000 cycle life, and recharge time of 45-plus minutes. In contrast, a liquid hydrogen fuel-cell system can get to 3,000-plus Wh/kg and 15,000-plus cycle life and it refuels in 20 minutes. Therefore, the higher the energy intensity and utilization, the more the balance tips toward hydrogen.

Now, let’s see where various transport fits. Personal cars are at the bottom with 2% energy intensity and 5% utilization. Light-duty commercial vehicles are a bit better, with 3% energy intensity and a much higher 30% utilization. Next, we have medium-duty delivery trucks, with 3.5% energy intensity and an even higher utilization of 40%. Heavy-duty trucks are higher yet, at approximately 11% energy intensity and 50% utilization. Then, we come to the pinnacle of the chart: commercial aircraft. The Boeing 737-400 has an energy intensity of 40%, staying in the air about 10 hours a day, for about 40% utilization.

Clearly from this analysis, light-duty personal vehicles are the worst possible segment, where even the current batteries are good enough. A typical 200-mile electric vehicle with 1,000 battery cycles has one charge cycle per week, delivering a nice 200,000-mile lifetime, which is more than it needs. In contrast, a Boeing 737 on a San Francisco to Los Angeles service will run eight trips (cycles) per day. Of course, batteries would not work at all due to weight, but even if they somehow magically did, they would last just 4-8 months, requiring 50-plus battery replacements over the aircraft’s lifetime. In contrast, hydrogen fuel-cell systems would last 10 times longer, while delivering five to 20 times the energy density, depending on how we store hydrogen. The case for hydrogen is pretty clear once you look at the fundamentals.

It gets even clearer when one considers fueling infrastructure. In the U.S., there are 110,000 car gas stations and 6,000 truck stations. In contrast, 85% of all commercial air traffic is concentrated in just 50 airports, with the remaining 15% across just 450 more. The larger the fueling network, the harder and more expensive it is to replace it. Individual stations get smaller, require more complex fuel logistics, and drive higher amortization costs per kilogram of fuel dispensed. Once again, commercial air transport shines.

The powertrain costs point in the same direction. A typical car engine contributes only 8%-10% to the vehicle cost, or approximately $3,000 per engine, or about $30 per kilowatt. Any competing technology has to compete with that number. With the current costs of fuel-cell systems at $300-$1,000 per kilowatt, this is a very hard number to beat. However, even a small aviation turbine costs $1 million, or over $1,000 per kilowatt. Again, it is obvious where the sweet spot is.

Therefore, we believe it is aviation, not cars — and especially not personal cars — that will finally drive hydrogen to become a mass transportation fuel. The sooner the industry and the governments realize that and align their investments accordingly, the sooner we will have hydrogen fuel scale-up.

The initial high-volume infrastructure can be built out at the airports, with simple extensions into roadside fueling stations. Airports, as natural transportation hubs, are among the best places for refueling, where over a billion people show up every year and millions of vehicles pick up and deliver. From these obvious locations, we will have a further expansion to cover lighter and lighter duty transport.

The market of hydrogen aviation solutions continues to expand, with projects ranging from Modular Approach to Hybrid-Electric Propulsion Architecture (MAHEPA), which flew a four-seater hydrogen-powered aircraft, to the SKAI 4-passenger drones and Alaka’i Technologies air taxis. EnableH2 is testing hydrogen turbines, and our company is testing a hydrogen powertrain targeting commercial operation by 2023 for short-haul 19-passenger flights up to 500 miles.

Hydrogen is critical for the future of aviation, and aviation is critical for the future of hydrogen. From fueling infrastructure to fuel-cell systems to aircraft makers and airlines, forward-looking players can act now and take leading positions for years to come.

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