Thursday’s Unemployment Claims Could Match Last Week’s 6.6 Million

Every Thursday the U.S. Department of Labor announces weekly unemployment claims based on what has occurred in the 50 states. Over the past two weeks they have ballooned to 3.3 million and 6.6 million, respectively.

This Thursday’s report will be for the week ending Saturday, April 4. While the official numbers for the states will be announced on Thursday, there are press reports based on statements from government officials that allow for projections.

Using reports from California and North Carolina it appears that this week’s result could reach at least 6 million and possibly exceed last week’s 6.6 million. The graph below is from March’s employment report and the first two weeks of unemployment claims. An additional 6 million would put the tip of the arrow around 23 million people being unemployed.

California could see over 1 million jobless claims on Thursday

California had the largest number of people file unemployment claims for the week ending March 28, more than the second highest number of 405,880 in Pennsylvania. California’s 878,727 claims for the week substantially increased from 186,333 the prior week, making for a total of 1.065 million.

California Governor Gavin Newsom said on Thursday, April 2, that the state had seen more than 1.9 million Californian’s file since March 12. This would mean at least 835,000 claims had been processed over four or five days from Sunday, March 29, and that two or three more days of claims could be filed. If they are processed at the same daily rate, the state could generate over 1.1 million and upwards of 1.4 million claims for the week.

This would mean that there were at least 200,000 and as many as 500,000 more claims reported this week versus a week ago. While other states may see a decline in their number, since California is the largest state it’s result can offset a number of other state’s lower filings.

North Carolina saw over 140,000 people file unemployment claims last week

North Carolina had 94,083 people file for unemployment insurance three weeks ago (week starting on March 16) and 170,881 the next week, for a total of 264,964.

The Winston-Salem Journal reported that, “from March 16 through Saturday, April 4, there have been at least 407,737 claims filed, with 87.2% of applicants citing the COVID-19 virus as the reason for their job loss, layoff from work, reduced wages or furlough.” Since this timeframe includes the third week of increased claims, it appears that 142,773 people filed during the week, a decrease of just over 28,000 from the prior week.

The Journal added, “Economists forecast as many as 2.5 million North Carolinians, or 40% of the 6.29 million adult working-age population, may be at high- or moderate-risk for a layoff or reductions in wages, tips and work hours, or for furloughs.” Since “only” 407,737 have filed, this weekly level of unemployment claims could go on for a number of weeks.

Total of 16 million laid off with two weeks to go until the next employment report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that the U.S. economy lost 701,000 jobs in March. From the Bureau’s press release it stated, “It is important to keep in mind that the March survey reference period (March 8 to 14) predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures in the second half of the month.”

This means April’s employment report will contain the 3.3 million unemployment claims on March 26 and the 6.6 million claims from Thursday, April 2. With an additional 6 million the total would be 16 million, and there are two more weeks of layoffs and unemployment claims to be included. 

With 16 million more people being unemployed the unemployment rate could be over 14%. Even with two more weeks with just a few million more each week, the rate could reach 17% or higher.

The graph below is from March’s employment report and the first two weeks of unemployment claims. At 17% it would blow past the Great Recession’s 10% high mark.



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