Tropical Storm Arthur Could Develop Off The East Coast This Weekend — 2 Weeks Before Hurricane Season Starts

TOPLINE

The National Hurricane Center says there is a 70% chance in the next five days, and a 40% chance in the next 48 hours, that the first official system in this year’s Atlantic hurricane season could develop off the U.S. East Coast — a full two weeks before the official start of a hurricane season forecasters show could be one of the most active in history.

KEY FACTS

KEY BACKGROUND

Forecasters noted above average sea-surface temperatures and lower than normal wind shear — which prevents storms from forming — as reasons to expect this season will be very active.

A tropical storm forming out of the normal June 1-November 30 window that officially constitutes Atlantic hurricane season isn’t particularly uncommon, though, and doesn’t necessarily mean an active season lies ahead.

Should the system develop, this would actually be the sixth consecutive season that a storm has formed in the Atlantic basin before the official start of hurricane season, which would set a new record for consecutive years.

TANGENT

If the name “Tropical Storm Arthur” rings a bell, that’s because it’s been used six times in the past, with the first being in 1984.

Unless a name is retired, usually because of some major impact, the list of storm names is recycled once every six years, meaning it’s likely there will be a Tropical Storm Arthur again in 2026.

In 2014 — the most recent time the name was used — Hurricane Arthur worked its way up the U.S. East Coast, making landfall in North Carolina, with wind gusts in the area topping 100 mph.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The National Hurricane Center is issuing special tropical weather outlooks twice a day to provide updates on the system. Those are released daily at 8:30 a.m. and 3 p.m. Eastern time.

FURTHER READING

Tropical storms and hurricanes in the winter and spring? (NOAA)

Experts agree this hurricane season will be above-average, maybe even extremely active (CNN)