Trump Should Declare Victory In China Trade War. Here’s How.

Now is the time to shut down the trade war with China, at least temorarily.

The Trump Administration could provide either of two justifications:

First, say the common enemy today is coronavirus and the world must take strong measures to keep the economy as strong as possible during this period, when so many nations, China and the United States included, have taken steps to put their economies into an “induced coma.”

OK, not likely.

Second, declare victory, with a wink.

To be sure, China’s economy was flagging before the pandemic, with its growth at its slowest rate in decades. But that’s not the real advantage here.

If the Trump Administration were to lift tariffs, with a guarantee that China would do the same with its remaining retaliatory tariffs, two things would happen:

First, China would start buying our soybeans, our oil and other products. U.S. exporters would win.

At the moment, anyway, China is back up and running, after about two months of being shut down, first by the Chinese New Year and then by coronavirus.

Second — and here comes the wink — we wouldn’t resume buying from China. Why not? Because the U.S. economy is, if not in the toilet, perilously close to it.

This would allow Trump to declare victory, chalking it up to his caginess, and the Chinese to declare victory because they would regain access to key products.

Many would argue there’s never a good time to fight a trade war with tariffs.

Few would argue that now is a good time to do so, outside of his closest advisers on U.S. trade policy.

It’s time to declare victory, at least for the next few months, until the pandemic is brought under some level of control and before it’s too late to salvage yet another soybean season.