UCLA’s Chris Smith Is Far From Perfect, But He Should Be A First-Round Pick In The 2021 NBA Draft

UCLA wing Chris Smith considered entering the 2020 NBA Draft, but he ultimately chose to return to Westwood for his senior season. That decision can be tough on a player, especially with the looming uncertainty of a global pandemic, but Smith didn’t return to the Bruins with one foot out the door.

“We have some unfinished business,” said Smith, after withdrawing his name. He wanted to go back to school and make himself more appealing to NBA front offices, but he also wanted to be a veteran leader for a UCLA program that had started to figure things out late in Mick Cronin’s first season as head coach of the Bruins.

Before Smith pulled out of the 2020 NBA Draft, I had him as a top-50 prospect on my big board. But as I continued to dive deeper and deeper into his game, I started to think he was more of a top-40 guy, with real first-round upside. Now, I think Smith is going to stick as a top-25 prospect in the 2021 NBA Draft, which is one that is highly regarded.

This season, Smith is averaging 15.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game for the Bruins, who are off to a 3-1 start. All of those would be career highs for the 20-year-old, who stands at 6-foot-9 and has an estimated 7-foot-1 wingspan. Smith is also shooting 53.8 percent from the outside, and he’s doing so on 3.3 attempts per game. That percentage isn’t sustainable, but Smith’s stroke had started to improve last year. It appears to be continuing on the same path, and you’ll see here that the mechanics are clean (all video provided by Next Ones):

Smith might not be a stone-cold sniper from deep, but his numbers suggest he should be taken very seriously as a catch-and-shoot threat. I think he’ll likely settle in at around 40 percent from deep this year, and I really believe in him as a high-30s guy at the next level. That will allow him to stretch the floor for his teammates, but it will also give him the opportunity to attack close-outs, which he already does at a high level. Smith is smooth as can be on one-dribble pull ups, but he also knows how to use his jumper to help him get all the way to the rim.

Despite possessing the length of a full-time forward, Smith is listed as a guard for the Bruins. Considering how smooth he is, it’s somewhat understandable. Smith had an Anthony Davis-like growth spurt in high school, shooting up nearly nine inches in between his freshman and sophomore year. That allowed him to develop like a guard. But even though the Bruins consider him a part of the backcourt, I view Smith as more of a small forward right now, and I think he’ll eventually be best as a small-ball four, where all of his skills would be magnified. Smith does most of his work against quicker guards and wings at the moment. Imagine what he could do against defenders with slower feet.

Smith’s fluidity is probably what jumps off the screen the most when you watch him play. Yeah, he shoots it well for a player with his length, but Smith effortlessly glides all over the floor, where his combination of size and mobility is an asset in transition, but also allows him to free himself up. Just watch him work off the ball in a meeting with Pepperdine:

Smith’s ability to get himself through tight spaces and simply find the spots he likes is part of the reason he is such a threat as both a pick-and-roll roll man and a catch-and-shoot option. He doesn’t need the offense to run through him in order to get himself the occasional opportunity, and that will be an asset in the NBA, where he won’t be coming into the league as a top dog offensively. However, Smith does have a good handle for his size, and he will occasionally wow you with a breathless take to the basket. Here’s a play that shows you just how unique he is, as he completely freezes Cal guard Matt Bradley off the bounce:

Offensively, I feel that Smith does a lot of the things that made Patrick Williams a priority for the Chicago Bulls with the fourth-overall pick. Chicago views Williams as a player that can have a Pascal Siakam-type impact on the floor, and I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Smith ends up doing the same — but to a lesser extent. Smith’s decision-making needs to improve, but he seems like a guy that could excel as a stretch-four that also has some tertiary play-making responsibilities. Smith’s turnovers have been an issue for him, but he has been a late bloomer throughout the entirety of his basketball career. I think he’ll continue to improve with the ball in his hands, and his assist percentage is already up from 12.6% as a junior to 18.3% as a senior. He’s done that while decreasing his turnover rate from 12.5% as a junior to 10.7% as a senior.

Defensively, Smith should be rangy and switchable at the next level. Right now, he’s defending a lot of perimeter players, and he has done a decent job on them. His length allows him to contest a lot of shots, and he does a good job of defending around the rim. He should continue to get better on that end of the floor, as Cronin’s specialty is defense. The only issue on this front is that Smith will need to put on some muscle in order to really thrive as a four in the NBA. Smith is currently listed at 215 pounds, but I’m not sure I buy that number. And I think he’ll need to be at least 230 to be able to cover power forwards in the pros.

As with most prospects, especially ones that don’t declare as underclassmen, Smith does have flaws. But unlike most others, Smith’s biggest issue is his lack of aggressiveness. Too often, Smith will completely disappear for minutes at a time. In fact, he has already had some invisible halves of basketball this season, and we’re only four games into the year. He can even look disinterested at times, standing still when things aren’t going his way. Simply put, he doesn’t impose his will on the game, especially considering his overall tool kit should make it easy for him to dominate.

In many ways, Smith is going to need to be rewired at the next level if he is ever going to become a stud. But as it stands, his undeniable talent is just too enticing not to make him a first-round selection. Smith oozes potential and he does so many things that teams are looking for on the wing. Even if Smith never becomes what he’s capable of being, there’s a role for him in an NBA rotation. Just look at Brooklyn’s Jeff Green, who has been collecting paychecks since 2007, despite never becoming the tantalizing two-way wing that people expected. At the very least, Smith can be that role player. But what if he ends up in the right situation? Smith might be a senior, but he only turns 21 later this month. He’s younger than Precious Achiuwa, who was a one-and-done freshman that was drafted 20th by the Miami Heat last month. If Achiuwa is viewed as a long-term project, isn’t there a chance that Smith is also a sleeping giant? After all, he has improved in every year he has spent at UCLA. Personally, I’m expecting a big leap from Smith at some point in the next couple of years. There’s already a ridiculous foundation. It’s just a matter of him fine-tuning some things.