‘Wonder Woman 1984’ Box Office: A Frontloaded Sequel To A Leggy Blockbuster

Wonder Woman 1984 leaves HBO Max after today, completing its “available in theaters and on streaming for the first 30 days of its domestic theatrical run” obligation. It’ll be in theaters only until it begins its conventional post-theatrical (EST, VOD, DVD, etc.) lifespan. Alas, the superhero sequel has earned just $37.663 million domestic after a month of play. That’s less than the first Wonder Woman’s $38 million opening day in 2017 and a mere 2.25x weekend-to-final multiplier. It’ll finish with a multiplier about on par with Man of Steel ($291 million from a $128 million debut in 2013). Yes, the release is obviously complicated by the HBO Max factor and the very mixed word of mouth.

That’s still the worst weekend-to-final multiplier of any major December release behind only Aeon Flux ($25.8 million from a $12.6 million debut in 2005) and Psycho ($21.5 million/$10 million in 1998). Both of those films opened in the post-Thanksgiving slot, so Wonder Woman 1984’s lack of legs is beyond anything we’ve seen anywhere near the Christmas season (especially for films that opened on a Friday). Even the infamous Star Trek Nemesis earned $43.2 million from an $18.5 million domestic debut just days before The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers stomped on its fan-specific demos. Wonder Woman 1984 might get there, but this is a sequel to a movie that remains the leggiest-ever $100 million-plus opener.

Again, we must acknowledge the mother of all Roger Maris-sized asterisks when discussing this, but considering Wonder Woman 1984 was a surefire contender to earn anywhere from $700 million to $900 million theatrically in conventional times, it’s hard to argue that the choice to release it now as opposed to holding it until June, was the right call in the short term. By default, vaccinations will continue, and the situation will get better over the course of the year. Will things be back to normal by June? Probably not, but I’m pretty sure that, especially with improved overseas markets, Wonder Woman 1984 would have earned a lot more than $148 million worldwide in the first 40 days of global release.

What’s done is done, and that the film wasn’t terribly well-received (at least on social media) means that it now falls to Godzilla Vs. Kong to get folks excited about signing up for and *keeping* their HBO Max subscriptions. It might well work, especially if everything before July gets delayed except the Warner Bros. releases, leaving HBO Max as the only game in town for actual big studio tentpoles. But just in terms of Wonder Woman 1984, the film opened slightly better than hoped ($16.7 million over Christmas) but then displayed legs no better than had it opened in conventional times. It’s clear that those who wanted to see it (and could do so) theatrically did so over Christmas weekend.

We can only speculate as to how many households have watched it on HBO Max over the last month. If WB announces soon that, I dunno, 15 million people watched it in the first month, well, I’d love to know that side of the story.  At $14.99 per month for a subscription, comes out to around $225 million. At $9.37 a ticket, that would equal $141 million, or about what the film might have earned on its domestic opening weekend. The case is still that the film got hung out to dry overseas to boost the perceived strength of a domestic streaming platform. Would desperate theaters have, if given the choice, preferred $110 million in overseas grosses now versus $200-$300 million later?

The best-case-scenario is that WW84 loses money in terms of “revenue to budget” (as will Pixar’s Soul and Disneys Mulan) but succeeds in getting folks interested in/aware of HBO Max for the long haul. Even that narrative puts the Patty Jenkins-directed flick in the position of being a loss leader/sacrificial lamb. Sure, everyone got paid and the circumstances of its duel release (during a pandemic) guaranteed that a Wonder Woman 3 had to happen so as to maintain the appearance of success. The full story for the Gal Gadot/Chris Pine/Pedro Pascal/Kristen Wiig fantasy is not yet written, so we’ll see if it’s a victim of circumstance or a best-foot-forward launching pad for a new normal.

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