Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Rudy Gobert And 2019-20’s Top Defensive Player Of The Year Candidates

Defensive Player of the Year is one of the more difficult awards to predict this season.

And while many are rightfully skeptical of defensive catch-all metrics (there are just aren’t many ways to objectively measure everything that goes into defense), we can call on them to help us break down the race for DPOY.

The most well-known catch-alls in circulation are ESPN’s defensive real plus-minus; Basketball Index‘s defensive player impact plus-minus; FiveThirtyEight‘s defensive RAPTOR; and Basketball Reference‘s defensive box plus/minus; individual defensive rating and defensive win shares.

If we take every player with 500-plus minutes in 2019-20 and sort them by the average of their ranks in those metrics, we get the following top 10:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: If he repeats as MVP and secures Defensive Player of the Year, Giannis would join Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon as the only players in league history to win both awards in the same season.
2. Brook Lopez: It’s no wonder the Milwaukee Bucks have, by far, the best defense in the NBA. On top of Giannis’ versatility, they may have the game’s best defensive anchor in Lopez who absorbs incoming drivers about as well as any big in the game.
3. Rudy Gobert: The Utah Jazz’ defense took a step back this season, but don’t blame Gobert. He was first in defensive real plus-minus and defensive RAPTOR rating in part because he remains a dominant deterrent inside.
4. Anthony Davis: The Los Angeles Lakers’ defense was dreadful when AD played without LeBron James this season, but it ranked in the 95th percentile when both were on the floor. And in those situations, AD was the clear defensive anchor.
5. Jonathan Isaac: Unfortunately, an injury ended Isaac’s season before he got to 1,000 minutes, but he was an excellent defender in his abbreviated 2019-20. The Orlando Magic allowed 4.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor.
6. Kawhi Leonard: It probably shouldn’t surprise many to see another two-time Defensive Player of the Year make the top 10. When Kawhi was on the floor this season, the Los Angeles Clippers’ defensive rating ranked in the 90th percentile.
7. Donte DiVincenzo: Another Buck makes the list. Many will wonder if his numbers are merely buoyed by his situation, and that’s probably be fair, but DiVincenzo was undoubtedly a great individual defender this season. The already stellar Milwaukee defense allowed 2.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when DiVincenzo was on the floor.
8. Kris Dunn: The second guard to make the top 10, Dunn seems to have found his niche in the NBA. He still has a whale of a time on offense, but he’s an identity-setter on the other end. His 6.8 defensive rating swing ranked in the 91st percentile.
9. Bam Adebayo: Adebayo was a Swiss Army knife for the Miami Heat this season, ably defending all five positions. His most impressive stat may be that he held Giannis to 8-of-23 shooting when defending the reigning MVP.
10. JaVale McGee: There had to be one outlier, right? Few, if any, would credit McGee for the Lakers’ strong defense. And these numbers have been criticized in the past for overvaluing bigs. Basketball Reference recently adjusted box plus/minus to try to account for that.

Now, all but one of the aforementioned metrics is a rate stat (think points per game), rather than a cumulative stat (think points). If you think there’s additional value in how many minutes each player spent leveraging their defensive abilities against opponents, adding total minutes to the equation yields the following top 10:

1. Rudy Gobert
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo
3. Anthony Davis
4. Brook Lopez
5. Bam Adebayo
6. Kawhi Leonard
7. LeBron James
8. Jayson Tatum
9. Donte DiVincenzo
10. Hassan Whiteside

It’s also fairly common for players to get bonus points for playing for the league’s best defensive team. If we make the added variable team defensive rating when the player is on the floor, rather than total minutes, the top 10 looks like this:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Brook Lopez
3. Rudy Gobert
4. Donte DiVincenzo
5. Anthony Davis
6. Jonathan Isaac
7. Kris Dunn
8. Kawhi Leonard
9. Marc Gasol
10. Joel Embiid

However you approach this, it’s difficult to ignore the statistical argument for Giannis.

For those who are curious, the entire list of 331 qualified players can be found here. And if your curiosity is morbid, the bottom five players were Bradley Beal, Trae Young, Darius Garland, Anfernee Simons and Isaiah Thomas.