The Military Imbalance In The Taiwan Strait In 2020 [Infographic]

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its latest overview of Chinese military power, revealing for the very first time how many nuclear warheads Beijing is thought to possess. Published on Tuesday, the China Military Power Report estimates that China’s warhead stockpile is now in the low 200s and that number is expected to double to at least 400-500 by 2030. Like every year, the research also provides a fresh and interesting overview of the military imbalance in the Taiwan Strait. This year’s edition is especially timely in the wake of U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar visiting Taiwan for high level meetings last month, a move that angered Beijing. He is the most senior U.S. official to visit Taiwan in 41 years and China responded by sending J-10 and J-11 fighter jets into the Taiwan Strait where they briefly crossed the sensitive median line unofficially separating airspace between the island and the mainland.

China considers Taiwan a rogue province that will inevitably be reunified, reserving all measures (including force) to achieve that goal. Political and military tensions have increased notably in the region in recent years for several reasons including the ongoing trade war between the Trump administration and China, as well as the U.S. government’s decision to supply Taipei with advanced military hardware, particularly the most modern variants of the F-16 fighter jet. The situation has also deteriorated as a result of Beijing’s ongoing territorial claims in the South China Sea that have led to unease in neighboring countries and prompted Japan to cast aside its postwar pacifism. The state of current tensions was especially highlighted last month when Taiwanese Air Force F-16As were pictured patrolling with live Harpoon anti-ship missiles ahead of a Chinese military exercise, a very rare occurrence.

China has never ruled out invading Taiwan and such exercises have shown that it is acquiring the military capability to do so. Beijing has launched an enormous effort in recent years to overhaul and modernize its armed forces, introducing advanced weapons systems like the J-20 fighter jet, an indigenous stealth aircraft broadly equivalent to the U.S. F-22 Raptor. China has also commissioned two combat-ready aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong, while a third is under construction. It has also made huge progress building amphibious assault ships and tank-landing vessels that would be essential in launching a successful invasion of Taiwan. Even though the likelihood of that happening remains low, the report (and following infographic) shows that the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is stacked firmly in China’s favor.

*Click below to enlarge (charted by Statista)