2 Weather Stories To Watch This Weekend – SpaceX Launch And A Potential 3rd Tropical Storm

The last weekend of May brings two scenarios that are worth watching from a meteorological perspective. As a weather and climate contributor to Forbes, it felt appropriate to provide a brief update on both them. They are centered on the following two questions: “Will weather allow for the SpaceX launch of two astronauts at NASA Kennedy Space Center? and “Will the 3rd tropical storm of 2020 form? Here is my perspective on both questions.

Let’s start with the historic launch. In the U.S., we are battling a pandemic, a struggling economy, and racial strife precipitated by several recent unfortunate killings. We need some good news. We need to see astronauts launch again from U.S. soil from the first time in almost a decade. Weather prevented the launch earlier in the week. According to SpaceX.com, “The instantaneous launch window opens at 3:22 p.m. EDT, or 19:22 UTC, with a backup instantaneous launch opportunity available on Sunday, May 31 at 3:00 p.m. EDT, or 19:00 UTC.” The 45th Weather Squadron, which supports launch operations at Kennedy Space Center is currently estimating a 50% probability of violating weather constraints on Saturday.

The primary concerns are precipitation and clouds associated with afternoon convection. The forecast discussion on the 45th Weather Squadron website specifically points to the lack of inland progression of the sea breeze front, which is one of the meteorological processes I explored in my doctoral dissertation. Because of differences how land and water heat up, a sea breeze circulation (see graphic above) often forms in coastal regions. The rising motion associated with the leading edge of the sea breeze front can cause storms or showers. Under certain wind conditions, the front stays close to the originating coast rather than moving inland. Saturday seems to be one of those days, which is not good news for launch activity. As you see in the forecast discussion below, Sunday may also be a challenge.

Meanwhile, a system is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean that could become the 3rd named tropical system of the year. While neither of the early systems has been a significant weather hazard, they met the criteria to be named. The National Hurricane Center gives the current system a 60% chance of developing within the next 2 to 5 days. If the storm receives a name (Cristobal) before June 1st, it would be the first time on record that three named storms have occurred before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Forecaster Jack Beven, one of my former Florida State University graduate school colleagues writes in the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, “Additional development is possible today and tonight, and a subtropical depression could still form while the system moves generally northward.” Beven, however, doesn’t seem to be bullish on much development after that time period due to unfavorable conditions. The chance of the system moving beyond a depression to a named storm is iffy, but we’ll keep watching it closely.