2019-20 Champions League: Lisbon Could Be The Stage For An Upset

This season’s Champions League has already thrown up a few surprises, from Paris Saint-Germain’s comeback win against Borussia Dortmund to Atalanta’s fairytale run to the quarter-finals. But COVID-19, and the forced changes to the schedule mean that there could still be plenty of surprises to come.

The modern Champions League format doesn’t allow for shock winners. Its group stage format almost guarantees that the bigger teams progress, usually finishing top of their groups and earning an easier seeded tie for the first knockout round. The double-legged format means the underdog has to win twice to go through, so even if they get a lucky punch in the first leg, they still usually go out. Easier travel around Europe and better scouting mean there are no surprises.

The past saw teams like Steaua Bucharest, Celtic and Nottingham Forest lift Europe’s greatest club trophy. The only shocks in the last 20 years though have been Inter Milan’s win in 2010 and Porto’s win in 2004.

Those two wins were masterminded by Jose Mourinho, whose Tottenham Hotspur side have already crashed out of this season’s Champions League, losing 4-0 on aggregate to RB Leipzig in the Round of 16. But there is still more chance of a shock this season than there has been for some time.

For starters, the holders Liverpool have already been knocked out. They lost dramatically in extra time to Atletico Madrid who might well be feeling that this could finally be their year. Atletico are one of four teams to have already reached the quarter finals. Two of the others, RB Leipzig and Atalanta are at this stage for the first time in their history.

Leipzig finished top of their group before beating Spurs in the knockout stages, but could be without star player Timo Werner depending on what happens with his proposed move to Chelsea. Atalanta are the surprise of the tournament. They lost their opener 4-0 to Dinamo Zagreb, and had just one point after four group stage games before winning their final two games to reach the next round where they beat Valencia by an incredible 8-4 on aggregate.

There are still four games to be concluded in the Round of 16, and several of the big names are stuttering. Real Madrid are 2-1 down to Manchester City, Juventus are a goal down to Lyon, and Barcelona are only level 1-1 with Napoli. The bigger teams usually find a way through in the second legs, but without a crowd to cheer them, Barcelona and Juventus won’t have quite as much of an advantage as usual.

That’s if they have a home advantage at all – UEFA haven’t decided whether these games will happen at the host team’s home ground, or whether they will be moved to Portugal. Such a move would make a mockery of the away goals rule, but as the top seed gets the second game at home, the move generally benefits the underdogs.

Should the underdogs come out on top in those matches, then once those Round of 16 matches are done and dusted, it could be that out of every team to win the Champions League since Porto, only Bayern Munich are left standing.

Once we get to the quarter finals, things get really interesting. All the games will be played in Lisbon, and crucially, they will all be played over just one leg.

The two-legged format allows both teams to play in front of their home fans, but it doesn’t have quite the same drama as a one-off match where anything can happen. Add in all of the other unknowns caused by COVID-19 and this could be the most unpredictable tournament in years.

Take Bayern Munich for example, having already won the Bundesliga, they will only play one meaningful game between now and August, the DFB Pokal final against Bayer Leverkusen on July 4^th. Bayern might be one of the strongest teams left in the competition, but they might lose a bit of match fitness compared to their opponents. Paris Saint-Germain and Lyon could be in an even worse state with no French soccer taking place at all. The cancellation of the French season could have cost Paris Saint-Germain their best shot at Champions League success.

Despite all the upheaval, the bigger clubs like Bayern Munich and Barcelona are still the favorites to lift the 2019/20 Champions League in Lisbon on 23 August, but the changes to this season’s tournament mean that they aren’t quite as assured of victory as they might have been.