2019-20 Was A Tale Of Two Seasons For Houston Rockets’ Russell Westbrook

The Houston Rockets and Russell Westbrook came into the 2019-2020 season with huge hopes after the trade that brought the league’s 2016-2017 MVP to town this past summer. Before the break in action due to the pandemic, Westbrook had been playing some of the best basketball of his career. But a quad strain cut into his postseason, causing him to miss the first half of the first round, and then left him hampered against the Los Angeles Lakers in the semifinals. The Rockets were bounced unceremoniously in just five games, head coach Mike D’Antoni announced his departure, and now the franchise is left wondering where to go next.

For the year, Westbrook averaged 27.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game on 47.2% shooting from the floor. In January, he averaged 32.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game, on 52.2% shooting from the floor, in eleven games. In February, in eight games, Westbrook averaged 33.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, on 54.9% shooting from the floor. Much of the production coincided with Houston’s schematic change, after D’Antoni went center-less, initially after an injury to center Clint Capela.

The playoffs were a completely different story as Westbrook averaged just 17.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on 42.1% shooting, often having trouble to even dribble the basketball. The Lakers largely left him unguarded on the perimeter when he was off-ball, and when he did have it, he was unable to capitalize on the mismatches he had been seeing all season.

Westbrook vs. the Lakers

It was a far cry from the February 6 meeting between the two teams when Westbrook scored 41 points on 17/28 points, scoring in a variety of manners.

On that night, he had the burst to attack Anthony Davis repeatedly in isolation with the Lakers’ big man switched onto the Houston guard due to the Rockets not playing a traditional center.

And when he had space, created from traps against Harden, Westbrook darted straight through the gap as he did all year after the trade that sent Capela to Atlanta for forward Robert Covington, unclogging the middle for that very purpose.

In the semifinals, Westbrook did not have the same crispness, often mishandling the ball after making his move.

Further, Westbrook—one of the most compelling physical specimens of the last decade—understandably did not seem to have the same lift following the quad injury.

For the series, Westbrook averaged 19.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game on 42% shooting the floor. He also had 4.2 turnovers per game. Those are certainly not dreadful numbers, but the production was a far cry from what Westbrook had provided the Rockets during the regular season, particularly after the trade of Capela. And it was nowhere near what the team would need from its second highest paid player to knock off a top seed like the Lakers.

After committing so many resources to Westbrook, and completely remaking their lineup to accommodate his strengths, Houston needed peak performance from Westbrook to be able to get over the hump.

Where Does Houston Go From Here?

Next season, Westbrook will be owed $41.36 million. The following year, when he’ll be 32, he will be owed $44.21 million. And in 2022-23, when Westbrook will be 33 years old, he has a player option that he will certainly exercise which will pay him $47.06 million. All of this money owed comes as a result of the five year, $206.79 million contract Westbrook signed back in 2018, prior to the trade to Houston while still with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Had D’Antoni decided to return, there would be little question that the team would most likely run it back next season with the core group in place, hoping to make improvements at the margins through internal growth and development. But D’Antoni is gone and a new coach is on the way along with a new system. That puts the entire future in question. Would general manager Daryl Morey entertain trades for Westbrook?

One could see a team like the Orlando Magic or Detroit Pistons—middling franchises with probable interest in generating buzz—having interest in dealing for Westbrook. But it seems highly unlikely that any team would be willing to give up sufficient value in a deal to make a trade worth the Rockets’ while. For example, a trade of Westbrook for Markelle Fultz and Nikola Vucevic works under the cap and also decreases Houston’s total team salary for next season. But while it would help Houston’s depth and give them an interesting young prospect in Fultz, such a deal certainly would not raise the team’s immediate ceiling to a point one could feel optimistic about title contention.

Substituting forward Aaron Gordon for Fultz makes things more interesting, but is not only likely too much for the Magic to feel comfortable giving up but would also greatly increase Houston’s total team salary above the luxury tax line. Such is the other challenge for Houston with respect to roster moves – ensuring that total team salary remains palatable enough to allow Morey to once again wiggle below the tax line come the deadline.

James Harden, like Westbrook, also has two more years remaining on his contract with a player option in 2022-2023 for $47.37 million. The most likely and practical route for the Rockets, new coach in tow, is to just take two more shots with the Harden/Westbrook duo before Harden can leave in 2022. Keeping Westbrook at least keeps Harden happy. And while the pairing is far from a perfect fit, there is at least upside as seen back in February before the break in action.

For now, the Rockets will have to hope a new coaching staff can add value through an improved scheme and that Morey can find a bargain in free agency using the mid-level exception. Perhaps there isn’t much cause for extreme optimism. But blowing it up and dealing Westbrook does little to better the Rockets’ immediate title odds.