3 Questions That Will Define The Cleveland Cavaliers Offseason

When the NBA announced its return-to-play format on June 4, it finalized the end to the Cavaliers’ season. Whether they participates in the NBA’s condensed summer league or not, the Cavs are focused on the offseason.

Unless Andre Drummond declines his $28.7 million player option (unlikely), the Cavs won’t have much salary cap flexibility this summer. But they are guaranteed a top-six pick in the 2020 NBA Draft thanks to their 19-46 record, the third-worst in the league. And they still face interesting decisions with their current players.

With that in mind, here are three questions the Cavs need to consider this offseason. 

1. Which of the Cavs’ young guards are long-term solutions?

The Cavs have spent three of their last four first round picks on guards. And according to The Ringer’s 2020 NBA draft guide, five of this year’s top eight prospects are guards.

So the Cavs have to think hard about their opinions of Kevin Porter Jr., Collin Sexton, and Darius Garland. Those three don’t necessary preclude the Cavs from drafting another guard this year, but doing so would further complicate each players’ development. 

Further complicating matters is the fact that the Cars don’t have a large sample size from which to draw conclusions about their guards. Sexton proved his worth as a high-volume scorer in his second season, averaging 20.8 points per game on 47/38/85 (field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free throw percentage) shooting splits. But he’s still developing as a passer – he averaged three assists compared to 2.4 turnovers per game – and, at 6’1, will probably never be a plus-defender.

Porter Jr., who averaged 10 points and on 44/34/72 shooting splits flashed impressive shot-creation skills as a rookie, but he’s only played in 50 NBA games. Garland’s rookie season (12 points and four assists per game on 40/36/88 shooting splits) will not inspire all-star comparisons, but he’s only 20. 

Such are the challenges associated with building a roster the old-fashioned way. The Cavs probably can’t definitively answer this question this summer.

They have to keep thinking about it, though. Ideally, they can trade the player(s) that doesn’t/don’t fit for something meaningful.

If they wait too long to decide who stays, though, the sheen could wear off on their potential. And they don’t want to be stuck with too many former highly-touted prospects. 

2. Can Kevin Love recoup his trade value?

Neither Kevin Love nor the Cavaliers are happy with their current arrangement, When Love signed his four-year, $120 million extension in July 2018, I don’t think he envisioned playing vet to a bunch of lottery picks. 

The extension was supposed to increase Love’s trade value. The logic behind it was that a team trading for Love would be more comfortable parting with assets if they were acquiring Love’s services for a longer period. 

Unfortunately, that logic ignored the fact that Love signed the contract at 29, Paying 29-year-old Kevin Love a max salary is fine. Paying 34-year-old Kevin Love that same salary is a different matter. 

Thus, the league’s opinion of Love’s trade value differs widely from Cleveland’s That gives the Cavs two choices, neither of which are perfect.

If they accept that Love’s trade value will not be what the Cavs hoped and accept a lesser return (presumably another bad contract with an asset attached), they lose their best player without a netting a comparable positive asset. If they keep Love in hopes he can rebuild his value, they risk chemistry-harming moments like this.

Keeping Love could also, in theory, be good for developing young guards. Spacing is a valuable currency to ball-handlers learning to navigate NBA defenses. But doing so would also risk Love’s dissatisfaction bleeding further into his play. And the longer the Cavs keep Love, the more his contract will impair their cap flexibility. 

3. How much money is Tristan Thompson worth? 

Tristan Thompson is a good NBA player. He was also overpaid on his last contract.

Both statements are true, which complicates his value on the unrestricted free agent market this summer. 

Thompson’s standing as a positive locker room presence and ties to the LeBron days cannot be understated. On the other hand, the Cavs cannot cheaply replace him with one of the many capable bigs around the league. 

Thompson’s next contract will almost certainly sign for less this summer than he did in 2016, and only five teams are expected to have significant cap space this summer, which could lower Thompson’s market value.  

The Cavs may have to pay more than Thompson’s market suggests he’s worth, however. They can’t sell Thompson on a playoff roster or the extra exposure that accompanies winning. Their millions are not the same as the Clippers’ or Celtics’.

As good a soldier as Thompson has been since James left, it’s unlikely he’s willing to sacrifice winning without financial incentive. So the Cavs have to decide how much they value their longest-tenured player.