37-Year-Old Justin Verlander Confronts An Uncertain Future When It Comes To His Injured Elbow

Justin Verlander, one of the fiercest competitors of his generation, has become synonymous with dominance, consistency, and durability. Sadly, the 37-year-old pitcher for the Houston Astros has been diagnosed with a season ending torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. At a time in his career when Verlander should have an eye towards the Baseball Hall of Fame and cementing his legacy as an elite strikeout pitcher, he is now confronting a significant health challenge that could possibly prevent him from ever pitching again.  

The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner’s two-year, $66 million contract with the Astros expires at the conclusion of the 2021 season. Verlander will earn $33 million as he spends the entire season rehabilitating after Tommy John surgery. He will file for free agency at a time of great uncertainty both for him and the sport as Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement is set to expire on December 1, 2021. By Opening Day in 2022, Verlander will be 39 years old and had last pitched a regular season game on July 24, 2020.   

There is a genuine sense of melancholy surrounding Verlander’s injury even though he plays for the villainous Astros. He has been hailed for his workhorse mentality and stands in stark contrast to the latest trends in the game when it comes to starting pitchers. Verlander always appeared to be a throwback pitcher who could have easily excelled during the 1960s in an era dominated by Don Drysdale, Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, and the recently deceased Tom Seaver.

Last season’s retirement of left-handed pitcher CC Sabathia began the conversations of how much longer will we be able to enjoy the performances of dominant starting pitchers who regularly pitch deep into ballgames. Sadly, they have become a dying breed in baseball. Therefore, we must appreciate every time old school pitchers such as Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer take the mound as we truly do not know when or if we will see pitchers of this caliber and mentality going forward.              

Three things immediately pop into one’s mind regarding Verlander: games started, innings pitched, and strikeouts. Verlander has started 30 or more games in a season 13 times while eclipsing 200 innings pitched 12 times. According to Baseball-Reference.com’s Stathead Baseball, there have only been six pitchers in Major League Baseball history to have had nine or more seasons of at least 30 games started, 200 innings pitched, and 200 strikeouts. Verlander (9) is on this prestigious list along with Nolan Ryan (14), Roger Clemens (12), Randy Johnson (11), Tom Seaver (10), and Bob Gibson (9).   

Last September, Verlander became the 18^th pitcher to eclipse 3,000 strikeouts in their career. In total, Verlander has had nine seasons in which he has struck out at least 200 batters which includes a 300-strikeout season in 2019. He is also one of five pitchers to have struck out at least 250 batters in a season on five occasions. Verlander has led the American League in strikeouts five times while winning two Cy Young Awards (2011 and 2019). He is one of 11 pitchers to have won the Cy Young and Most Valuable Player Awards in the same season (2011).

An author of three no-hitters, Verlander has thrown 48,822 pitches over 454 regular season games started since his debut in 2005 with the Detroit Tigers. This equates to 107.5 pitches per game and 16.34 pitches per inning. In 368 of Verlander’s starts, he had thrown at least 100 pitches. His career high in a regular season game to date is 132 pitches and Verlander achieved this accomplishment twice between the 2011-2012 seasons.

In terms of the postseason, the 2017 American League Championship Series Most Valuable Player has thrown 3,109 pitches over 31 games (30 games started) in 187.2 innings pitched. In eight of Verlander’s postseason starts, he had thrown at least 115 pitches. He achieved a career high 133 pitches in 7.1 innings against the Texas Rangers in Game Five of the 2011 American League Championship Series.

Justin Verlander’s ulnar collateral ligament injury is another painful reminder of the fragility of pitchers regardless of age. However, it is also another depressing sign that elite power pitchers that once dominated baseball are slowly becoming fossils as the sport relies heavily on innings limits, pitch counts, analytics, match ups, and openers. The win statistic has already become irrelevant and we are slowly seeing the art of pitching dramatically change right before our eyes. Let’s hope that we get to see Verlander once again on a pitcher’s mound and it might be fitting for him to close a Hall of Fame career wearing a Detroit Tigers uniform.