/https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/965cda78c4b44fc19d43ade7809fb936/0x0.jpg?cropX1=0&cropX2=3900&cropY1=0&cropY2=2193&w=1920&resize=1920,0&ssl=1 "5 Polling Stats That Should Make Joe Biden Worry")
TOPLINE
In a head-to-head matchup with President Trump, Joe Biden has led in national polls and — more importantly — polls in key battleground states but there are data points, on everything from the economy to voter enthusiasm, that should give the former vice president pause as he ramps up his general election machine for November.
WILMINGTON, DE – MARCH 12 :Former Vice President, Joe Biden giving a speech on combating Coronavirus … [+]
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KEY FACTS
The former vice president is leading in national polls — a Real Clear Politics general election poll tracker has him up 5.9 points over Trump — and recent surveys in battleground states — a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has him up six points in key swing states.
However, an average of state polls in battleground states shows the race is much closer: a New York Times analysis of state-by-state polls since January shows Biden trailing Trump in Florida and up just 1.1 point in Wisconsin, states pivotal to winning the election in 2020.
Biden is far behind Trump in voter enthusiasm, as just 24% of his supporters say they are enthusiastic, compared to 53% of Trump’s supporters, according to a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll (ABC reported the 24% figure was the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls.)
Polls show voters give Trump the edge on the economy: the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey found Trump leading Biden by 11 points on which candidate would better handle the economy (47% to 36%.)
Young people could be a problem for Biden as well: while young voters overwhelmingly back the former vice president over Trump, they have a net-negative personal opinion of him (a favorable/unfavorable of 25% to 44%), the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey shows.
The coronavirus epidemic could spell trouble for Biden, too: a plurality of voters say they haven’t heard of Biden’s statements on the pandemic, and when voters are asked whom they trust more to tackle the coronavirus outbreak, the difference between the two is statistically insignificant, a Washington Post-ABC News poll highlights.
Key background
The nightmare scenario for Democrats is a repeat of 2016: Biden wins the popular vote but falls to Trump in the Electoral College, a possibility Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told Forbes is entirely possible.
Trump won in 2016 over Hillary Clinton by barely squeaking out victories in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, states he won by a combined margin of around 77,000 votes, even while he lost the popular vote by almost 3 million votes.
Big number
6 points. Biden leads Trump by about the same percentage nationally as Clinton led Trump, around 5 points, in the final round of national polls before the election in 2016, the Times data shows.
Surprising fact
The New York Times reports Trump has made gains among nonwhite voters in polling since 2016 while Biden has improved on Clinton’s performance with older voters.
Further reading
Voters In Key Swing States Back Biden Over Trump, New Poll Shows (Forbes)
Here’s What The Polls Say About Biden’s Election Chances Against Trump (Forbes)
Biden Has Record Fundraising Month In March With $46.7 Million, But Still Trails Trump (Forbes)
Biden Pulls Ahead Of Trump In Arizona Poll, Putting State In Play For 2020 (Forbes)
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