Airline Coronavirus “Ghost” Ships, More A Symptom Than A Problem

According to Adam Bienkov “Airlines are burning thousands of gallons of fuel flying empty ‘ghost’ planes so they can keep their flight slots during the coronavirus outbreak.” Flying empty planes not only wastes a lot of money, it also generates even more unnecessary pollution. This is an unfortunate image that aviation really does not need right now. Why would airlines do such a thing? Why would savvy business people, running a multi-billion dollar high tech corporation do something so costly?

Enter government rationing programs. Governments ration airspace and airport capacity in terms of “slots”. The rules regarding airport slots are intended to ration a scarce resource. They are also intended to preserve a certain balance in the share each airline has in terms of airport access. The government said they had to fly 80% of their schedule, it did not say they had to move passengers or cargo. But this all happened in Europe. In the United States we have a deregulated airline industry. Nothing like this would ever happen here, right?

We have government slot control rationing in the United States as well. Some airports became slot controlled when the demand exceeded the capacity. This seems straightforward enough. Once a glass is full of water you can’t put any more in. Simple, right? But airports are not water glasses and there is more involved than the simple laws of math and physics.

We have all been to busy airports during the rush hour when there is a frenzy of activity. Everyone is running to get somewhere. Ground crews are struggling to keep up with demand. Passengers are standing in long security lines. Aircraft are waiting in long queues just to take off. Everything looks really busy and ever so complex. But is it really “full”, or is this frenetic activity a symptom of something else?

Unlike a glass of water, defining a full airport involves disciplines other than math or physics. Complicated rules, as well as inter airlines sales of slots and auctions create a complex balance of interests. Slots have become important to all airlines for competitive reasons. The more slots you have at a given airport, the larger share of the passenger market you control. Much like the air traffic control system, slot control has become a functional mechanism for managing the volume of air traffic that extends across government air traffic control organizations and the airline operations management organizations. Slots are used as an air traffic volume management technique all over the world. This rationing technique leads directly to things like Mr. Bienkov’s “ghost” ships.

If an airport is full, maybe slot rationing is a good thing, or at least a necessary thing. It is certainly one way to manage volume related workload. But we still have not defined what “full” really means. Maybe what presents as full, is really lack of coordination between airport users.

How many of us have not had a flight like this?

Leaving out of Atlanta for Baltimore, I usually plan to leave as late as possible in the evening to avoid the “rush hour”. Congestion in  Atlanta is beginning to wind down a bit, and while there are still some minor delays getting out, things are not too bad.

Early in the flight, the pilot comes on the intercom sounding very confident and reassuring.

–   “Ladies and gentlemen, it looks like we are making great time tonight. I have been able to make up 20 minutes in flight, and even though we left Atlanta a little late, we are actually going to arrive 10 minutes ahead of schedule in Baltimore”.

Landing at a nearly empty Baltimore airport late at night, everyone is relived, thinking that even though we got out of Atlanta late, this is still going to be an early night.

Twenty minutes later we are all still sitting on the plane. Passengers are getting frigidity and just a little irritable. The pilot is back on the intercom, now sounding a bit contrite and frustrated.

–   “Sorry for the delay ladies and gentlemen, but we have now located the Jetway driver, and we should be disembarking very shortly”.

Thankfully the phenomena of “ghost” ships do not make the news very often. But “ghost” ships are just a symptom of a less dramatic, more important problem. There are thousands of smaller events that take place every single day and go more or less unnoticed. Air traffic congestion is a huge economic and environmental problem. The solution, however, is not front-page news like the “ghost” ships. It is the management of thousands of mundane little events, like the late night flight with no Jetway driver.

It’s not really about the touchdowns, or game changing fumbles. It’s about the coordination of every single flight, every single day; especially during “ops” normal. In the words of the great Vince Lombardi, “this is a game of inches”.

In an earlier piece I talked about the fact that flights take longer in the evening than they do in the morning. The physics of the airspace and airport probably did not change in a matter of hours. Something else did. Perhaps the airport would not be as “full” if flights did not take longer in the evening.

If airport users were had an incentive to maximize the use of the airport, rather than to fill a “slot”, would “ghost” ships be necessary? Would passenger delays that happen day after day in normal operations need to happen at all? Would the unnecessary pollution and noise that these delays cause need to happen? Would the airport really be “full”?