Analyzing Five Of The Best Upperclassmen In The 2020 NBA Draft

With March Madness cancelled, the harsh reality for all basketball fans is that all they can do is look ahead to the 2020 NBA Draft and start preparing for everything to get back to normal.

Most of the prospects you’ll read about in the coming weeks are underclassmen. Freshmen and sophomores are the ones that teams feel have the most untapped potential, and the ones that can produce when they’re younger are generally the most talented. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t a couple of older players that will go on to have great NBA careers.

Every year, at least one team ends up kicking itself for opting to take a shiny toy that just doesn’t end up figuring it out. And every so often, some lucky team will end up getting somebody that has proven they can play over and over again. With that said, here’s a look at five older prospects that teams should be interested in:

Paul Reed (20, 6-9, DePaul University)

If Reed enters the 2020 NBA Draft, he should instantly be a very good defender. On the season, the junior has a defensive box plus/minus of 8.2, which goes nicely with a 9.7 block rate and 3.3 steal rate. Nerlens Noel is the only other player to post a season like that since 2009-10, and he has turned into a good defensive big in the NBA.

With a 7-foot-2 wingspan, and a great combination of athleticism and fluidity, Reed is a remarkable presence on the defensive end. He protects the rim extremely well for a forward—he’s especially good as a weak-side defender—and he is also solid when getting switched onto guards in space. Reed needs to put on some weight in order to deal with some of the size he’ll be up against in the NBA, but the real issue is what he’ll be on the other end of the floor.

Offensively, Reed is good in transition and his quickness in isolation gives opposing big men problems. If he can become a better ball handler, he could ultimately be a matchup nightmare. However, it’s absolutely crucial that Reed learns how to shoot. His form has improved over the years, but there are still plenty of adjustments to be made. Until he is a threat to make catch-and-shoot jumpers, it’s going to be hard for him to play extended minutes.

Overall, I have Reed ranked as the 20^th-best prospect in this draft. If he can figure out his shot, he’ll end up significantly outperforming his draft slot. At the very least, Reed will be a good energy guy off the bench. But he could be so much more.

Killian Tillie (22, 6-10, Gonzaga University)

I already did an in-depth piece on what I like about Tillie’s game, but it’s easy to sum up what the senior does well. At 6-foot-10, Tillie has the size to play the center position at the next level. And while he isn’t going to be banging down low, he did shoot 44.4 percent from three in his college career. He’s a great shooter and that should continue in the NBA.

Tillie also has an incredibly high basketball IQ. He’s a good passer and simply knows how to make the right play. That helps him out on the other end of the floor, too. Tillie isn’t exactly a rim protector, but he knows how to get himself to the right spots. He has functional athleticism, which is just good enough to make me believe he won’t be a negative at the next level.

Tillie is my 23^rd-ranked prospect in this draft. His biggest question mark is his health. The 22-year-old has battled a number of lower body injuries in his career. But if he can stay on the court, he should be a big part of somebody’s rotation.

Xavier Tillman (21, 6-9, Michigan State University)

Tillman isn’t projected to be a lottery pick, so there’s still a chance he opts to stay for his final season in East Lansing. But if he chooses to go pro, there’s a good chance he’ll end up going in the first round.

Tillman is as polished a player as there was in college basketball last season. An elite defender, despite being a bit undersized at the center position, Tillman is a force inside and is also rather competent guarding out on the perimeter. His lack of pop as an athlete might scare teams off, but he’s going to be able to defend at the next level.

Offensively, Tillman is doing his best to become a pick-and-pop option. He shot just 26 percent from three this year, but his form isn’t anything close to broken. He shot 73.2 percent from the line as a sophomore, so I do believe in his ability to eventually knock down open looks.

At the moment, he’s still capable of helping his team in a number of ways. For starters, Tillman is one of the best passing bigs in the nation. He’s always looking out for open shooters and cutters. Front offices are going to appreciate that, as being able to pass as a roll man is crucial in today’s game. Tillman is also a good finisher around the rim. And he generally is always doing something to make things easier on his teammates.

There’s no guarantee Tillman will be a starter at the next level, but he’s going to give his team a ton of productive minutes. That’s why I have him as my 25^th-ranked prospect.

Tyler Bey (22, 6-7, University of Colorado)

Bey had a really good season for Colorado, averaging 13.8 points and nine rebounds per game. He also chipped in 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks per game, showing why many talent evaluators believe in his ability to be a good two-way player.

Bey is one of the better athletes in the draft, and he has really good size for a wing. He’ll likely be able to spend time playing some small-ball four in the NBA. However, Bey needs to work on his fundamentals.

Bey shot 41.9 percent from three this year, but he attempted only one per game. He’s not very confident in his shot, and defenses aren’t either. They gladly give him space to shoot, and if he’s not knocking down jumpers then he’s going to destroy his team’s spacing. He has made strides as a shooter over the years, but it’ll take a significant improvement in order for him to be playable.

Defensively, Bey is a bit reckless in the way he goes for steals. He gets his hands on a lot of passes and shots, but he also gets caught out of position too often. Ultimately, I see Bey as a borderline first-round pick. But there’s a lot he needs to clean up in order to be productive.

Grant Riller (23, 6-3, College of Charleston)

In his final year in school, Riller averaged 21.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game in 33.5 minute per game. He shot 49.9 percent from the floor and 36.2 percent from three, continuing to be the special offensive player he was since he arrived on campus.

At 23 years old, Riller should be able to come right into the NBA and be a productive backup. His offensive game should translate rather nicely to the pros, as he is incredible off the dribble and manipulative as a ball handler. That will allow him to continue to finish at the basket and create opportunities for his teammates.

One question mark offensively is whether or not he’ll be able to hit the NBA three. Riller shot 39.4 percent from the outside three seasons ago, but he shot just 32.9 percent as a junior and 36.2% as a senior. At his age, it’s fair to wonder if the jumper will ever fall consistently.

Defensively, Riller could also end up being a bit of a liability. That’s why I ultimately don’t see him being as a first-round talent. But he should still be able to help plenty of teams. Especially those that need a spark off the bench.