As MLS Conference Finals Approach, 5 Reasons Seattle Sounders Can Still Be Stopped

It’s hard recall a previous MLS Cup Playoffs that has produced such a clear favorite with two rounds left to play as in 2020, when ahead of the conference finals the consensus is it’s the Seattle Sounders’ tournament to lose.

Four of the five teams that finished above the two-time champion Sounders in the 2020 Supporters’ Shield standings have already tasted playoff defeat. The surviving member of that quintet, Columbus Crew SC, are capable but unproven in their remade identity under second-year coach Caleb Porter. Seattle, meanwhile have cultivated an expectation of postseason success with two MLS Cups in the last four years and a third appearance in the final. In league circles, some even call the playoffs “Schmetzer Time” in honor of manager Brian Schmetzer, who took over midway through 2016 and has overseen all the success since.

So is the road to the 2020 MLS Cup really paved with Rave Green? Again? Maybe. But if you look close enough, there’s also reason to believe a third MLS title in the Emerald City isn’t quite a foregone conclusion. It’s no guarantee they even survive Monday’s Western Conference Final against Minnesota United.

Stepping Up In Class

The 2020 Sounders secured the second seed in the Western Conference, but during a season with an unusually unbalanced schedule, they haven’t exactly proven their mettle against the league’s elite. Six of Seattle’s 11 regular season wins came against opposition that finished outside the playoff field. And 12 of their 13 victories — in cluding the postseason — are against teams that finished outside the top four in the Western Conference. Their lone top four win came against Portland back in August, with the Timbers taking seven points from nine possible off the Sounders since.

A New Final Foe

Schmetzer has rightly won praise for his sides’ MLS Cup final performances. But those three previous finals appearances all came against the same Toronto FC side and manager Greg Vanney, who have already been sent home in 2020. Styles make fights, so it’s at least fair to wonder if Schmetzer’s sides might perform differently in a final against potential East foes Columbus and the New England Revolution, and their respective managers Caleb Porter and Bruce Arena.

Riding Their Luck?

Upon closer examination of the Sounders’ three MLS Cup finals appearances, it’s also fair to ask whether Seattle was more lucky than good. The Sounders absorbed wave after wave of pressure in 2016, then captured victory on penalties following a scoreless draw. In 2017, it was more of the same early before Jozy Altidore and Victor Vazquez finally broke through to help Toronto even the score. Then last year, Vanney’s men again started brightly before Schmetzer’s Sounders turned the tables after halftime in what finished a 3-1 win.

Not The Hot Hand

While MLS Best XI selections Nicolas Lodeiro, Jordan Morris and Raul Ruidiaz have all contributed to Seattle’s first two playoff wins, they are not the most in-form attackers of the second season. That designation belongs to two duos: New England’s Carles Gil (2g, 3a) and Gustavo Bou (3g, 1a), and Minnesota United’s Kevin Molino (4g, 0a) and Emanuel Reynoso (0g, 6a). MLS history books are full of players who caught fire in the playoffs and pushed their team to at least the final game, including Seattle’s own Lodeiro, who had two goals and five assists in the 2019 postseason. Either of these duos could do the same if their good form continues.

An Inside Job

Perhaps never has Seattle come against a playoff opponent so intimately familiar with the inner workings of their previous successes as they will Monday, when former-Sounder-turned-Loon Osvaldo Alonso. Yes, a good chunk of personnel has changed since the Cuban-born midfielder helped Seattle to its first two finals appearances before the end of his 10-year Sounders career. But Alonso will be well-versed in the abilities of Lodeiro, Morris, Joevin Jones and others whose attack he will be tasked with trying to destroy in the center of the park. Not to mention the thought process of Schmetzer, who was a longtime assistant with the club before taking over as manager.