Biden Leads In Key Battleground States Thanks To Support From Older Voters

TOPLINE

Three new polls released Wednesday had former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by healthy margins in the crucial swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, thanks in large part to his lead among older voters.

KEY FACTS

Key background

In recent elections, voters over 65 years old have been a fairly reliable voting block for Republicans. Exit polls from the New York Times
NYT
and CNN had Clinton losing to Trump in 2016 among that demographic by high-single digit margins. Even in 2018, a wave year for Democrats in which they won the House and several governorships, CNN had them losing older voters by 2 points. Biden appears to be uniquely well positioned as someone who resoundingly carried older voters in the Democratic primary.

Another critical factor, as in many facets of daily life, is the Coronavirus pandemic. A Morning Consult poll on Monday found that older Americans viewed Trump’s handling of the crisis more unfavorably than Americans overall. His margin among all Americans was 3 points, while he was underwater by 1 point with older voters, a 20 point drop since mid-March. This is likely contributing to Biden’s strength among voters 65 and older.

Big Number

167,907. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by just 167,907 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida out of over 135 million votes cast nationwide in 2016. Those three states decided the electoral college, and even a slight demographic advantage over Clinton may be all Biden needs to deny Trump a second term.

Crucial quote

New York Times polling expert Nate Cohn argues that Biden’s unique strength among older voters, even at the expense of youth enthusiasm, “could be a great asset,” because older voters “turn out at high numbers, potentially denting the traditional Republican advantage among likely voters.”

What to look for

Trump campaign communications staffer Erin Perrine said in an interview that the campaign plans to “get the fact out there” that “there’s no one out there protecting the American people more than president Trump” with regards to coronavirus. The Trump campaign may also adopt Bernie Sanders’ tack and try to outflank Biden to his left by seizing Biden’s record of openness to social security cuts. They might also try to make up the gap by focusing more of their organization and rallies–conditions permitting–on communities with sizable elderly populations, such as Florida’s retirement communities.