TOPLINEJoe Biden is leading President Trump by a margin of 9 points in traditionally-conservative Arizona, according to a new poll released Tuesday, an early sign that Democrats may have a shot at winning the key state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996.
TOPSHOT – Democratic presidential hopeful former Vice President Joe Biden walks out after speaking … [+]
AFP via Getty Images
KEY FACTS
The poll, conducted by OH Predictive Insights in a survey of 600 people, shows Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-43%, and is the sixth poll showing the former vice president ahead in the state since the beginning of March, according to a RealClearPolitics polling tracker.
National polls have also showed Biden ahead but, as experts point out, his road to the White House looks tougher when you look at head-to-head polling in states key to winning the Electoral College.
Early signs point to Biden running neck and neck with Trump in states that swept the president to the White House in 2016, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
If Biden can lock down Arizona, though, the Electoral College map looks much more favorable for him, as polling analysts point out he could lose a battleground state such as Wisconsin and still win the White House by also picking up Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Democrats lost Arizona in 2016 with Hillary Clinton falling to Trump by about 90,000 votes; however, the state has been trending blue in recent years as a result of its rapidly changing demographic.
Democratic Sen. Krysten Sinema (D-Az.) knocked off Republican challenger Sen. Martha McSally (R-Az.) in a Senate race in the state in 2018 (McSally was later appointed to Arizona’s other Senate seat after Sen. Jon Kyl resigned and Republican Gov. Doug Ducey chose her as Kyl’s successor.)
Crucial quote
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told Forbes it’s possible Trump could become the first president in U.S. history to win back-to-back elections without winning the popular vote. In 2016, Trump captured the White House by beating Clinton in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by a combined margin of around 77,000 votes, even while he lost the popular vote by about 3 million votes.
“Democrats could rack up all these extra votes that don’t even matter because of the Electoral College,” Sabato said about the 2020 election.
Tangent
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Joe Biden on Tuesday, one day after Sen. Bernie Sanders threw his support behind the presumptive nominee.
Further reading
Here’s What The Polls Say About Biden’s Election Chances Against Trump (Forbes)
Bernie Sanders Endorses Joe Biden: ‘We’ve Got To Make Trump A One-Term President’ (Forbes)
Why Biden’s Polling Lead vs. Trump Isn’t as Solid as It Looks (New York Times
NYT
)
Trump Campaign Facebook Ad Strategy: Paint Biden As A Socialist (Forbes)