Box Office: ‘Tenet’ Can Save The World, But ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ May Save America

Patty Jenkins and Gal Gadot’s Wonder Woman 1984 is primed to be the first saturation-level domestic release of any grand consequence.

Solstice Studios’ Unhinged, long positioned by the newbie distributor as the first wide theatrical release after the mid-March lockdown, would now open August 21. Ditto Warner Bros.’ tenth-anniversary rerelease of Chris Nolan’s Inception. The former, a Russell Crowe road-rage thriller which has been playing in Germany for the last week, was initially slated for July 1 and then moved to July 10, July 31 and now August 21. The Inception reissue came about as a consolation prize after Warner Bros. delayed Tenet from July 17 to July 31, instead slotting the Leonardo DiCaprio blockbuster ($292 million domestic and $824 million worldwide in 2010) for July 17. There’s no word on whether the movie initially scheduled for August 21, Lionsgate’s slavery era horror flick Antebellum, will remain on the slate.

We don’t know how wide the domestic release of Tenet will be beginning September 3, namely whether it’s very much a limited release or merely as many theaters as can safely/legally show it. The schedule as it stands is Unhinged and Inception on August 21, The New Mutants on August 28, Tenet on September 3, The Kings Man on September 18, Greenland (which opens overseas tomorrow) on September 25 and Wonder Woman 1984 on October 2. While Tenet is being looked at as the potential savior of the global theatrical industry, Gal Gadot’s superhero sequel could be just as important, especially in North America. While Tenet may or may not play in much of America, I’m presuming Wonder Woman 1984 (opening one month later) is planning on a conventional global release.

While very successful overseas ($409 million), Wonder Woman was a rare tentpole blockbuster that earned over 50% of its money in America, which was more about the Gal Gadot flick over performing domestically ($412.5 million from a $103.5 million opening weekend) than any softness in foreign box office. The hope is that, like many sequels of its ilk, Wonder Woman 1984 will increase its overseas footprint compared to its predecessor, perhaps compensating for a reasonable domestic downturn, but that’s not set in stone. While solo superhero movies have become as huge in China as they are in North America, with Venom ($272 million) Aquaman ($298 million), Captain Marvel ($154 million) and Spider-Man: Far from Home ($200 million) soaring above the over/under $125 million benchmark, the genre is not bulletproof.

Shazam! ($43 million) didn’t click in China, nor did Dark Phoenix ($65 million) even with X-Men: Apocalypse earning $122 million in 2016. Chinese moviegoers didn’t like Apocalypse any more than we did. Wonder Woman earned a solid $95 million in 2017, and word of mouth seemed mostly “It’s fine,” so it Wonder Woman 1984, presuming it’s any good, will earn (presuming semi-normal circumstances) at least a modest bump in Chinese box office. Nonetheless, of all the very big movies left on the 2020 release calendar, Wonder Woman 1984 is the one whose success is arguably most tied to domestic box office. With nine weeks between now and October 2, Warner Bros. has to be hoping the coronavirus situation has improved enough to allow a conventional global release, including a saturation-level domestic launch.

Blumhouse’s Candyman sequel, which (at this moment at least) is still scheduled for an October 23 wide theatrical release, is also (comparatively speaking) banking on American grosses for the bulk of its global earnings. While Blumhouse chillers do just fine overseas, Universal expects the Jordan Peele-produced and Nia DaCosta-directed horror flick to score big in North America, where Peele’s Get Out earned $175 million in 2017 and Us earned $171 million in 2019. Conversely, 20th Century’s The Kings Man (a prequel to the Kingsman series set during World War I) may be being viewed as an overseas-centric play so it wouldn’t shock me if it played “limited” in America and “wide” everywhere else. Ditto 20th Century’s Death on the Nile (Kenneth Branagh’s next Hercule Poirot flick) which is still scheduled for October 23.

Murder on the Orient Express earned $103 million domestic and $250 million overseas for a $353 million cume (on a $55 million budget). Vaughn’s Kingsman: The Secret Service (a rare new-to-cinema franchise to top $400 million global) earned $128 million domestic and $414 million worldwide in 2015 on an $81 million budget. Vaughn’s Kingsman: The Golden Circle wasn’t quite a breakout sequel (I would argue it wasn’t as good as its predecessor and wasted tons of screen time retconning that film’s continuity), but $100 million/$411 million on a $104 million budget is an unmitigated win. The Kings Man, starring Ralph Fiennes, will be hoping that the brand, and not just the Taron Egerton/Colin Firth pairing, is enough to entice consumers. Either way, I’m curious if The Kings Man approximates Tenet’s release plans.

November has (at the moment) three tentpoles in the form of Black Widow (November 6), No Time to Die (November 20) and Soul (November 20). Mulan has been pulled indefinitely along with Paramount
PGRE
’s G.I. Joe Origins: Snake Eyes (originally set for October 23) while Paramount’s A Quiet Place part II will now open not September 4 but April 23, 2021. The MCU prequel (with 30 minutes to play 1.90:1 in IMAX theaters), the 007 flick (partially shot in IMAX) and the Pixar flick are the kind of films that do a conventional 35/65 domestic/overseas split. Spectre was so slanted ($200 million/$681 million in 2015) that I wouldn’t be shocked if, spoilers and split distribution aside (United Artists domestic, Universal overseas), the fifth and final Daniel Craig-as-James Bond movie drops overseas well before America.

With Top Gun: Maverick now opening on July 2, 2021, December is mostly about Ryan Reynolds’ Free Guy (December 11), and a deluge of pre-Christmas biggies like Warner Bros.’ Dune, Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story and Eddie Murphy’s Coming 2 America all allegedly opening on December 18. Unless something gets delayed and/or Mulan ends up opening between now and Christmas, that’s 2020. I don’t know whether the Eddie Murphy comedy, nor Tom Hanks’ News of the World (December 25) or The Croods 2 (December 23) will open as scheduled, but we’ll see. Nor, obviously, do I know if any of the above-noted titles will flee to later dates and/or next year. But it does seem like, for better or worse, the fate of theatrical moviegoing is in Warner Bros.’ hands at the moment.

The overseas market hoping to be kicked off with Chris Nolan’s Tenet and (somewhat hypothetically for now) the domestic market is hoping to be revived by Patty Jenkins’ Wonder Woman 1984, which was always pegged as the frontrunner for the year’s biggest domestic earner. Universal’s aggressive pursual of PVOD as a tool even for theatrical releases, as well as its foresight in delaying its biggest movies (F9, Minions 2, Halloween Kills) a year into the future means it’s barely on the hook (save for James Bond 25) for the 2020 moviegoing year in any real capacity. Nor is Sony (which moved Venom 2, Ghostbusters Afterlife and Morbius into 2021) or Paramount. When movie theaters do open again in America and around the world, it’ll mostly be the Disney
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/Warner Bros. show.

WB will try to “save” overseas box office with Tenet and then “save” domestic box office with Wonder Woman 1984 while Dune takes its shot at being the year-end fantasy blockbuster. Walt Disney will offer Black Widow, The Kings Man, West Side Story and Soul as potential global biggies. Wonder Woman 1984 seems primed, if all goes well, to be the “welcome back” feature for American theaters, as it could be the first really big would-be blockbuster to receive a conventional saturation release both overseas and abroad. Depending on how wide Tenet plays in America and if No Time to Die stays in November, the fate of the domestic box office could be entirely tied to two female superheroes. Maybe Disney could throw Mulan into December and make it a hat trick.