Breaking Down Paul George’s Evolution Into A 3-Point Sniper

As a 24-year-old and the best player on the 2014 Pacers, a title-contender desperately trying to get over the hump, Paul George was on the cusp of stardom. He was already in the same room as LeBron James and other MVP candidates by the sheer respect he earned across the league, but he wasn’t sitting at the same table.

While the end of Indiana’s run as East powerhouses left a sour taste in people’s mouths, their efforts were underrated. It remains a special feat to push the Miami Heatles to seven and six games in back-to-back Conference Finals, despite George’s skill-set being in the embryonic stages.

August 1, 2014 became a turning point in George’s career. Looking back, that summer night in Las Vegas also signaled a change in East competition. With George taking more than seven months to recover from an open tibia-fibula fracture, the Pacers never had the same personnel. Excluding the six games he played at the tail end of 2014-15 — just to find a sense of comfortability — George never played with David West or Roy Hibbert again.

Above his disappointment surrounding the lack of scoring talent and help on the perimeter after the team disbanded, George was facing a laborious task. On top of regaining strength in his legs and becoming assertive again, he had to alter his style. The breakneck drives to the rim culminating in violent slams over weakside defenders (hi, Birdman) weren’t going to be as frequent. He still had above-average burst following the injury, to be sure, but a natural consequence of lower-body incidents is dialing back the amount of contact and forward explosion.

George finally returned to the same offensive force during the 2016-17 season. Shooting 62.4% at the rim, 46.7% in the mid-range (with one of the highest mid-range frequencies in the league) and 39.3% from deep, he was already a vicious three-level scorer and hadn’t reached his “prime” years.

Coming to terms with the Pacers’ inability to form another dangerous team, more specifically their unwillingness to pay the luxury tax, George finally requested a trade in July 2017. It was shortly after losing in one of the closest sweeps in history, as Indiana lost all four games to LeBron’s Cavaliers by a total margin of 16 points. George’s play wasn’t spectacular, shooting just 34.8% from inside the arc.

You could begin to see his approach changing during that series, however. He took 42 triples in just four games, 10.5 per contest, and knocked down 43% of them. In certain moments of his Pacers’ career, especially toward the end, he looked more potent and unstoppable from long-distance than Indiana’s legend, Reggie Miller.

When he arrived in Oklahoma City and became a secondary ball-handler next to the reigning MVP, Russell Westbrook, the next step for George was evident. The uncanny ability of Westbrook to abuse (and collapse) a defense with his downhill burst gave George the green light to become an off-ball threat. Everything didn’t have to generate from his own ISO or pick-and-roll creation. He was happy to be paired with another freak athlete that absorbed attention, and it’s ultimately why he re-signed with OKC in 2018 despite an ugly playoff exit.

In those two years with Billy Donovan and the Thunder, George transformed into one of the five deadliest shooters in the league. It’s not hyperbole, either, especially taking into account the pressure he puts on defenders when he maintains a live dribble. OKC started implementing more weakside screening action for him, much like you would see from other historical shooters. What separates George from most of the pack – other than Stephen Curry – is that he pairs this catch-and-shoot brilliance with adroit ball-handling and playmaking when attacking closeouts. His patience helped him become a fusion of both scoring styles in OKC, which propelled him into the 2018 MVP conversation.

During his exceptional run in 2018-19 before the Thunder’s demise, George was taking 9.6 three-pointers per 36 minutes. In total, it was 148 more than he shot during the first OKC season and 191 more than he ever attempted in Indiana.

Before the 2019 All-Star break, George was arguably second to only Giannis Antetokounmpo in the MVP race. His team was winning, and he was keeping them alive in tight games by drilling 40.6% of nine-plus threes per night – something only accomplished by Curry in three separate years.

George’s volume increased after the All-Star break. However, due to complications with both shoulders, his efficiency didn’t follow. In the final 21 games of his Thunder tenure, he was launching 10.5 threes per game and only seeing 33.6% drop.

Even with the month-long slump, his proficiency over the last four seasons is rivaling some of the world’s greatest sharpshooters.

Below, I compiled every NBA player to average at least seven three-point attempts per game dating back to 2016-17, which was George’s final Indiana run. Breaking down their outside shooting by the amount of open space, per Second Spectrum tracking, you can see how close George is to the Bay Area’s Splash Brothers. Each column is sortable:

Originally, the criteria included 100-plus games. But, for fun, I dropped it to see how close the sophomore sensation, Duncan Robinson, stacks up.

It’s important to note, these distance trackers aren’t always perfect. For the most part, they can be trusted, but the eye-test on some shots doesn’t always match the data.

Among those 13 high-volume gunners above, George is third in accuracy with a defender 2-4 feet away. If you don’t include Robinson because of the smaller sample, George is second to only Damian Lillard. With a defender 4-6 feet away, he’s sixth of the 13 shooters.

The category that appears the “easiest” but is often taken for granted is the wide-open shooting, with at least six feet of space. Over the last four years, George is 339-of-746 (45.4%) on those long-range attempts. If you only trail Curry and Klay Thompson in any type of shooting comparison, you’re in otherworldly company.

Throughout his 42 games in Los Angeles, George has made defenses pay for leaving him uncontested. With 4-6 feet of open space this year, he is 64-of-163 (39.3%) from downtown. Extend it to 6-plus feet, and he’s 42-of-90 (46.7%). That’s about as good as it gets, considering Miami’s sniper (Robinson) is converting on 45.9% of his wide-open triples this year.

It’s no easy task to cover every option on the floor while defending the Clippers. When Kawhi Leonard or Lou Williams are dictating a possession at the top of the key, their skills will absorb any attention. George has slotted in perfectly for any role Doc Rivers has needed him to; either has a motion-heavy shooter or primary creator when Leonard is sitting.

The Pull-Up Weapon

Before COVID-19 caused the season to shut down, lost in the Clippers’ second-place record was how much players benefited from Ivica Zubac’s screening. His potency as the big man in those initial actions, with a ball-handler at the top of the key looking for breathing room, was monumental reason why L.A.’s scorers were able to attack the paint.

In Leonard’s case, Zubac’s body contact on those screens allowed him to find daylight in the mid-range. For George, the high pick-and-roll sets with Zubac are fruitful in a different way.

In every video below, there are narrations in the background. You can listen to them while watching.

Using his center’s large frame, George is able to snake around the screens (and his defenders) in order to find these type of three-point looks:

As mentioned in the clip, George ranked seventh in effective field goal percentage (53.2%) among all players with at least 200 pick-and-roll possessions. Unfortunately for the Clippers, he takes part of the blame for their turnover issues all season. That’s why his points-per-possession mark in these actions is lower than most superstar players – he coughs up a turnover 17% of the time. It’s much higher than Leonard’s 11.8% giveaway rate in ball-screen situations.

This isn’t to say George should refrain from being a playmaker off screens. Due to his height and long arms, he’s developed into an above-average passer when he makes those north to south drives toward the rim.

Still, if he’s operating with the ball, most of his impact is going to be felt in quick pull-up opportunities. So far this season, George is 52-of-136 (38.2%) from three when he shoots off-the-dribble. It ranks sixth in the league out of all players with at least 130 attempts. Hilariously, Marcus Smart is currently the NBA’s most efficient pull-up shooter from long-distance.

Guarding him and staying attached through any screen, even a dribble-handoff, is easier said than done. The game simply hasn’t been exposed to many players of his size that maintain a shooting guard’s speed. In the first play below, one swift movement is all he needs to get a clear shot:

An Off-Ball Terror

Basketball isn’t solely about one player breaking down a defense with their penetration or individual moves. What makes it a beautiful and intricate sport is the amount of responsibility each player has on the floor. One thing I always try to stress for regular viewers is the practice of watching other components of a possession, not just the ball or top of the key.

For hybrid scorers that actively move without the ball, their effort and contributions often go unnoticed. George fits into this category. Everything he does before catching the ball is just as critical as the shooting motion.

In the first possession shown here, George makes sure to set a cross-screen for Leonard before starting his intended route. This was the Clippers’ intelligent way of turning a “double-drag” set into a form of elevator pin-down screens for George:

Rivers appreciates any wing that’s willing to move in the halfcourt. His offensive playbook isn’t as dedicated to misdirection and dummy screens as Steve Kerr’s philosophy in Golden State, but it’s one of the closest in comparison.

Los Angeles, similar to Oklahoma City last year, loves to utilize George as a quick-hitting wide receiver in clogged traffic.

When he’s bursting around opponents and getting adequate help from his brawny screeners, the last sight any foe wishes to see is a 6’9” George escaping into a stranded space:

Given the roster construction of those Pacers units from 2012 to 2014, it wasn’t realistic to have George play a slew of possessions off the ball. Their level of shot creation was already low with George Hill, and I doubt Frank Vogel was excited to give Lance Stephenson time in that role. Nate McMillan tinkered with it during George’s final year in Indy, but they were still deprived of any halfcourt flow.

Donovan started using George as both a main target and decoy in OKC’s “Hawk” set with Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony during their first season together. It proved to be successful until the playoffs. Plus, it unlocked the door for what transpired last year (2018-19) when George started scoring from the perimeter in a wide variety of ways.

Now with greater star talent and a deeper team around him, George is realizing his shooting potential.

Looking only at his scoring numbers when receiving an off-ball screen, he sits fifth overall in effective field goal percentage (57.3%) among all players with 80-plus possessions logged:

Notable players below the 80-possession mark, with their eFG%:

• LeBron James (47 possessions, 72.5%)
• Joe Ingles (45 possessions, 72.4%)
• Danilo Gallinari (50 possessions, 67.8%)
• Khris Middleton (66 possessions, 59.6%)

I included a few of those names for full transparency, since George would be below them if the volume qualifier was lifted.

But when you really think the context of George’s season, it’s absolutely remarkable for him to be nearly identical to the Latvian Laser, Dāvis Bertāns, in both volume and efficiency off screens.

Of course, we can’t gloss over two of his Clippers teammates quietly chilling at the top with unbelievable production. As Joey Linn wrote in February, there are a ton of qualities Landry Shamet brings to the table. One of them is how flammable he becomes while moving at full speed.

In addition to George providing a few alternatives to L.A.’s halfcourt system, there is one trend I’m surprised hasn’t carried over as much from his OKC days. It can also be classified as a Doc Rivers staple: The Spain pick-and-roll.

As described in the video below, I expected this new Clipper lineup – above any other – to execute Spain pick-and-rolls nearly every game. A traditional ball-screen flows into a “Spain action” when a dangerous shooter back screens the roll-man’s defender. George could feast on these more than ever before, but they haven’t been used much:

Considering George has spent most of his time partnering with Zubac at the top, it makes sense why they haven’t explored it very often with Harrell.

Even if that particular set has slipped through the cracks, what remains a joy for the Clippers’ offense is the famous sideline out-of-bounds (SLOB) plays. Much like his Boston successor, Rivers has earned a reputation of making smart calls after a dead ball.

In clutch moments, such as the last play in the video below, the Clippers aren’t lacking creativity. They have an experienced coach and a shooter that can exploit any defensive coverage, especially centers that drop back:

Don’t forget, too, being a threat off the ball doesn’t necessarily mean a player has to move. They can be stationary. Serving as a corner spacer to give his teammates room, George is a formidable presence. If any elite shooter is planted in the weakside corner, it makes life extremely difficult for the baseline defender who’s rotating:

Transition

His mixed bag of tricks isn’t exclusive to the halfcourt. George has only attempted 85 total shots in transition during his 42 games this season, but it’s the fear it instills in the defense that matters for Los Angeles.

Unlike many stars in the league, he doesn’t always want or need to push the break himself. After his team grabs a defensive rebound or forces a live turnover, George likes to create maximum spacing. Most of the time, he’ll head for the corners.

It’s hard enough to guard a team with multiple slashers. Add a supreme three-point shooter to one of the corners, which gives a retreating defender the ultimate pick-your-poison dilemma, and it’s almost impossible to stop. If he does get the ball early in transition, his quickness and smooth change of direction will resemble KD:

To label George’s corner shooting this year as torrid wouldn’t even do it justice. In half a season’s worth of games, he is 32-of-57 on corner triples. That’s 56.1% and more than 13 percentage points greater than he shot last season in OKC.

How does it stack up with some of the other elite corner specialists? Well, there have been 108 players to try at least 50 corner treys this year. He tops the league in efficiency if you keep the minimum attempts at 50, 40, and 30.

There is no coincidence the Clippers have looked their best in games with a healthy lineup. With both of their stars (Leonard and George) on the floor, Los Angeles has outscored teams by 11.6 points per 100 possessions in 760 minutes. For context, the Lakers are plus-10.3 per 100 possessions in 1,317 minutes when LeBron James and Anthony Davis play together.

Who would have guessed a healthy, versatile, and top-tier shooter makes a substantial impact for a title contender?