Building Becomes Harder For Phoenix Suns After Chris Paul Trade

Around the NBA, most seem at this point to agree the Phoenix Suns are in great position to make the playoffs next season.

The Point God, Chris Paul, is around now. Jae Crowder came over on a nice contract to give the Suns just that touch of physicality and winning pedigree they needed in the front court. The bench is nice and deep. All that plus a young core that already seemed on the cusp of a postseason berth means the Suns are firmly in position to end their decade-long playoff drought in 2021.

With that comes more intense scrutiny and a harder path forward. Since taking over as general manager just over two years ago, James Jones has operated with a mandate to improve the team and a tendency to prioritize his goals over the semantics of the salary cap and NBA roster-building. This was true before Paul’s arrival marked a new era for the franchise, but it’s also been true since. Jones cares about building the roster he wants. Value is secondary. 

To sign Ricky Rubio, who was one of the chips used to nab Paul, the Suns had to dump promising young talents T.J. Warren and De’Anthony Melton, who proceeded to have career years on their new teams in 2020, as well as three second-round picks. Adding Rubio helped legitimize the Suns again, but in a vacuum, losing those two wings hurt the team and probably did not equal. The picks would be nice to have.

The draft is another indication of the way Jones sees things. The team reached for Cameron Johnson at No. 11 in 2019, even after trading down from No. 6, but Johnson played well as a rookie. Perhaps because of how well it played out for them last time, Jones and the Suns went back to the same well in 2020.

Maryland’s Jalen Smith was projected to go no higher than 13th in the draft. But the Suns again homed in on their guy and took Smith with the 10th pick. It’s fair to say Phoenix’s evaluation of Smith differs from that of most analysts, but there still is no obvious role for Smith on this team right now with Saric, Crowder, Johnson and Deandre Ayton plugging the front court spots up. Aside from that, big men are also among the most replaceable commodities in the league these days.

Where does this put Jones and the Suns? Unless something unexpected happens, the playoffs. As ESPN’s Zach Lowe has said regarding the Paul trade, it’s OK to have some fun. Getting back to the postseason is a reasonable aim for a franchise that hasn’t been there since Booker was a freshman in high school. Giving up some value on the margins is maybe the cost of doing business for teams that are not free agent destinations or proven winners. But things get tighter the closer you get to the top. 

Jones’ moves leave the Suns with a roster that is very top heavy, with Paul and Booker making up more than half of the salary cap. The team is thin on the wing and heavy in the post, which is the opposite of how most winning teams have been built in the modern NBA. 

If this is what vaults the Suns into playoff contention, nobody will mind. Jones still has ways to improve the roster from here. Phoenix has most of its own future draft picks as well as several good young players. 

After the draft in mid-November, Jones said the Suns “would not be content” until they won a championship. That would indicate the process of improving this roster is not over. With Paul already 35 and only under contract for two more seasons, the next phase of this timeline must already be in sight, and the Suns have a depleted war chest to use in that process.

Going from a good playoff team to a championship team is one of the hardest things to do in sports. When a team is young and bad, getting better is easy. There’s always the opportunity to flip those young players for older, better ones, and the entire roster is always improving, if incrementally. An older team set on winning now provides fewer paths toward improvement. 

Consider the challenges the Suns will face moving on from Paul. The Suns have no young point guards on their roster and by vaulting into playoff contention, will no longer be drafting in the lottery, where they may have been able to find one. By taking Smith tenth at a position they’re already deep at, the Suns may have punted their last opportunity to draft a point guard high in the draft. 

These may seem like issues to consider later, but trading for Paul was quite the all-in move. It sapped the Suns of several of their best trade assets and signaled their transition from the bottom of the league to the middle. The calculus changes quickly once you are trying to win rather than just trying to build. The Suns are a surefire playoff contender in 2021, but the best teams plan for now and for the future. 

Since he took over, Jones has said his priority is internal development. The clearest path for this Suns team to contend for a championship is for Booker and Ayton to turn into top-15 or 20 players. Nothing Jones has done has jeopardized that. But it takes more than two players to win a ring, and it takes genuine dedication to maximize the other spots on the roster. The Suns the past two years have not made it a priority to nail those moves on the margins and as a result could be inhibited as soon as this year.