Can The Atlanta Braves Derail The Los Angeles Dodgers In 2020 NLCS?

The clash seemed inevitable from the start.

In one corner, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the team with the most wins, most runs scored, and most home runs during the virus-shortened 2020 baseball season.

In the other corner, the Atlanta Braves, younger and less experienced but also able to sweep their five postseason games to date.

Los Angeles has eight straight division crowns, more than halfway to Atlanta’s record string of 14 in a row from 1991-2005. The current Braves are on a new streak, with National League East titles in each of the last three seasons.

Both teams are on a misson: the Dodgers have not won a world championship since 1988 and the Braves have not advanced to the National League Championship Series since 2001. Until now.

The best-of-seven NLCS, held on the neutral ground of Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, will feature live fans – for the first time this year – and plenty of on-field fireworks.

Both the Braves and the Dodgers are clubs known to bludgeon opponents. The Dodgers scored more often, mainly because they were facing inferior opposition in the Western Divisions of both the National and American Leagues, but the Braves scored a league-record 29 runs in a single game, sandwiching all those runs in six consecutive innings.

Star power lurks larger in Los Angeles with its proximity to Hollywood but future star power seems more potent in Atlanta, a young team that entered this postseason without a single pitcher who had started a playoff game.

The result? The baby Braves blanked opponents in 46 of 49 innings to date, shutting out the rival Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins four times in five games.

Starting pitching – or the lack of it – could tip the balance. In a series with no off-days, the Dodgers have four solid starters in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Dustin May, and Julio Urias. The Braves counter with left-handed Los Angeles native Max Fried and rookie right-handers Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright. But there’s no obvious Game 4 starter for Atlanta, which did not need one in the first two playoff rounds.

The Dodgers not only have two lefties in Kershaw and Urias but also a potential fifth starter in Tony Gonsolin, who made as many starts (8) as Buehler during the 60-game season and posted a better earned run average.

Kershaw, who has three Cy Young Awards, is still a powerful pitcher at age 32. He fanned 19 while yielding three runs in 14 postseason innings this year.

Experience also counts in this series. The Dodgers are playing in their 14th NLCS, tying the St. Louis Cardinals for the most since divisional play began in 1969, but also their fourth in the last five years. And all five of their playoff games this month were at Globe Life Field, a new facility where the Braves have never played.

Atlanta is banking on its best hitters to revive from their playoffs snooze. In the Division Series against the Miami Marlins, leadoff man Ronald Acuna, Jr. and MVP front-runner Freddie Freeman had just two hits each.

The unlikely hitting heroes were Travis d’Arnaud, who knocked in seven runs, and Dansby Swanson. Each homered twice in the three-game set.

Freeman, whose 13th-inning RBI single ended Atlanta’s 1-0 win over Cincinnati in the first game of the Wild-Card Series, thrived in September after manager Brian Snitker moved him from third to second in the batting order. As a result, new No. 3 hitter Marcell Ozuna led the National League in runs batted in. He also finished first in the NL with 18 homers.

Although Freeman is favored to follow Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers as the National League’s Most Valuable Player, Mookie Betts might provide considerable competition. If Betts pulls an upset in the voting, he’ll join Frank Robinson as the only men to win the trophy in both leagues.

Acquired from the Boston Red Sox in a February trade, the 2018 American League MVP batted .292 with 16 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a .562 slugging percentage. The 28-year-old outfielder will top the Los Angeles lineup for years, thanks to a 12-year, $365 million contract extension.

The only Dodgers with better batting averages than Betts were shortstop Corey Seager and third baseman Justin Turner, both of whom finished at .307. Though Bellinger and Max Muncy had off-years, Seager led the Dodgers with 41 runs batted in and AJ Pollock tied Betts for the team lead in home runs.

Combined, the Dodgers and Braves dominated the major leagues in virtually every major offensive category, finishing first or second in home runs, runs scored, slugging, and OPS (on-base and slugging percentage combined).

“Records are cool but championships are better,” Turner told The Associated Press. “Until you’re the last team standing, that’s the ultimate goal.”

Atlanta is anxious to avenge its defeat by the Dodgers in the 2018 NL Division Series, which went just five games. But the Braves were not only younger and more inexperienced then but ahead of their own timetable to win a title.

Not anymore. The key to victory for the Beasts of the East could be a veteran bullpen rebuilt in a series of free-agent signings and trades over two seasons. Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, and lefty Will Smith all have closer experience, while durable Tyler Matzek, a playoffs star, returned to the majors after a five-year hiatus.

Smith and Melancon were perfect in the five playoff games to date. At 35, Melancon is not only the old man on a young staff but the highest-paid pitcher on the Atlanta roster. He earned every penny of his pro-rated 2020 salary of $10,185,185.

Counterpart Kenley Jansen, on the other hand, wasn’t quite as dependable. The 33-year-old right-hander led both leagues with 24 games finished but had a 1.15 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) and mediocre 3.33 earned run mark during the season. He also struggled in the playoffs against the San Diego Padres.

FanGraphs gives the Braves a 38.9 per cent chance of winning the series, cementing almost unanimous support for the Dodgers by baseball prognosticators. But the Braves were also underdogs against the Cincinnati Reds, whom they vanquished in the first round. Now they must prove their bite is as good as their bark.

No matter which teams wins, there’s a proverbial pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. According to Street & Smith’s Sports Business Journal, Major League Baseball expects to earn $1 billion from broadcast, advertising, and the limited game-day revenue from spectators allowed into Globe Life Field for the two final rounds.

How that lucrative pie will be divided remains to be determined but teams with the most wins will wind up with the most money – not to mention a towering gold trophy.