Can The Green Bay Packers Excel Against Indianapolis’ Elite Defense?

It’s certainly not the Green Bay Packers’ fault that most of their 2020 opponents have been defensively challenged. But there’s no denying that Green Bay’s offense prowess this year has been aided by its level of competition.

The Packers are third in scoring offense (30.8) and sixth in total offense (395.8), but quality of competition — or lack thereof — is a big reason why.

Six of the Packers’ first nine opponents rank in the bottom quarter of the league in total defense. Among those, Jacksonville (31^st), Atlanta (30^th) and Houston (29^th) are in the bottom four.

If the Packers’ offense wants to prove they’re an elite outfit, putting together a top-end performance against Indianapolis’ sensational defense Sunday would certainly quiet some doubters.

“You can tell everybody’s on the same page and they fly around,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of the Colts. “It’s one of the faster units we’ll have played this year. They’re physical, they know how to attack the ball, and it’s hard to get big plays on them.

“So, we’re going to have to do a great job. They really fly off the football up front. We’ve got to do a great job of stopping their D-line from getting them going and then, you know, attacking coverage.”

The Colts currently rank No. 1 in total defense (290.4), No. 2 in passing defense (198.7), No. 3 in rushing defense (91.8) and fourth in points allowed (19.7). Indianapolis is also first in opposing quarterback rating (78.9) and second in interceptions (11).

That’s not great news for Green Bay, which has struggled against high-level defenses under LaFleur.

The Packers are an impressive 21-6 (including playoffs) under LaFleur — a stellar .778 winning percentage. In that time, the Packers are 5-5 against teams with a top-10 defense and 16-1 against everyone else.

Making a statement against a defense as good as the Colts would be big for Green Bay’s offense.

“Obviously they’ve had really nice performances so far through nine games on defense,” Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said. “We’ve done really well on offense so it is a good matchup we look forward to.”

While the Packers have exceeded expectations under LaFleur, some of their most brutal offensive moments have come against top-10 defenses.

Consider:

Week 6, 2020: Tampa Bay 38, Green Bay 10 — Quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 16-of-35 passes for 160 yards with no touchdown passes, two interceptions and finished with a 35.4 passer rating.

The Packers scored 10 first quarter points, but were blanked the rest of the way.

Week 10, 2019: Los Angeles Chargers 26, Green Bay 11 — The Packers had just seven yards in the first quarter and didn’t notch their first, first down of the game until the second quarter. Things never got much better.

Green Bay finished with just 184 total yards and averaged only 3.8 yards per play. Rodgers also had just 61 passing yards through three quarters when the game was decided.

Week 12, 2019: San Francisco 37, Green Bay 8 — Green Bay managed just 60 first half yards in 34 plays and fell into a 23-0 halftime hole.

Rodgers finished the night just 20-of-33 for 104 yards — an average of 3.2 yards per attempt, which was the lowest of his career for an entire game. The Packers were also 0-of-13 on third downs with Rodgers in the game.

2019 NFC Championship Game: San Francisco 37, Green Bay 20 — The Packers dug themselves a 27-0 halftime hole when the offense couldn’t get going. Rodgers turned the ball over twice in the first half, three times in the game, and the 49ers’ dynamic defense dominated.

Green Bay’s best performance against an elite defense came in Week 3 of this season when it defeated New Orleans, 37-30.

The Packers played without Pro Bowl wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring), but Rodgers still completed 21-of-32 passes for 283 yards and three scores. Without Adams, wideout Allen Lazard stepped up with six receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown.

Can the Packers’ offense have a similar performance against the Colts? Or will it struggle like it has against several elite defenses under LaFleur?

“They’re just aggressive,” Packers center Corey Linsley said of the Colts. “They’re fast. We’ve got to match their intensity. They’ve got a bunch of good players up there in their front seven and we’ve got to bring our A-game.

“It’s evident on film that they play extremely well. They rarely miss a beat from game to game, and that’s the mentality that you’ve got to take going into this, and it’s going to take our A-game because we know they’re going to bring their A-game. That’s just how it is.”