Chiefs Are 20.5-Point Betting Favorites Over Jets, One Of 10 Biggest NFL Spreads Since 1976

The phrase “any given Sunday” was coined by Bert Bell, who served as NFL commissioner in the 1940s and 1950s, and immortalized in a 1999 Oliver Stone movie by the same name. It represents the idea that any pro football team could beat another team, even as a big underdog. But Sunday’s matchup between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and 0-7 New York Jets puts the cliché to the test. The Jets opened Monday as 20.5-point underdogs, the tenth-biggest spread since at least 1976, according to sports betting outlet TheLines.com.

Jets versus Chiefs is a massive mismatch almost any way you slice it. The Chiefs’ 2020 point differential of plus 75 ranks second behind only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; the Jets have been outscored by 118 points, 51 points worse than any other NFL team. The quarterbacks were drafted a year apart, but while Patrick Mahomes won the 2018 NFL MVP in his first full-time year under center, Sam Darnold has almost as many interceptions (34) as touchdowns (39) in his career; Mahomes’ ratio is a staggering 92 TDs versus 19 picks in seven more NFL starts.

The biggest mismatch might be on the sidelines. Jets coach Adam Gase is supposed to be an offensive guru, but his teams ranked No. 32, No. 32 and No. 31 the past three years for offense performance, including his final year as coach of the Miami Dolphins. Put another way, they ranked last, last and second to last. Andy Reid ranks No. 7 all-time in coaching wins and has missed the playoffs only six times in his first 21 years.

“These are typically the hardest games to handicap because a game with such a talent disparity can be so unpredictable,” says Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com.

History backs Collson up. The big spread doesn’t mean the Chiefs are a sure bet to cover by any stretch. The favorite has won outright the nine previous NFL games where the spread topped 20, but the only cover was when reigning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh shellacked expansion club Tampa Bay 42-0 in 1976.

New England was the favorite in three of the 10 biggest mismatches, while Pittsburgh and Dallas both land a pair of spots as big favorites. Two of the 10 games with a spread of more than 20 in the past 35 years occurred on the same weekend, week five of the 1987 season. Those games occurred in the middle of a 24-day player strike, and teams filled their rosters with replacement players.

The Jets have been a losing bet so far this season. They failed to cover any of their first six games but broke the streak Sunday with 18-10 loss against Buffalo when the Bills were favored by 9.5 points. Kansas City has covered the spread in five of their first seven games of 2020 and 13 of their past 16 games overall, with one push.

Below are the 10 biggest spreads since 1976. All of them are based on the closing line at kickoff, except for the Chiefs-Jets, which is still to be determined.

1. Denver (-28) vs. Jacksonville in 2013; Denver won 35-19

2. Steelers (-27) vs. Tampa Bay in 1976; Pittsburgh won 42-0

3T. New England (-24) vs. Philadelphia in 2007; New England won 31-28

3T. San Francisco (-24) vs. Cincinnati in 1993; San Francisco won 21-8

5T. San Francisco (-23) vs. Atlanta in 1987; San Francisco won 25-17

5T. Dallas (-23) vs. Tampa Bay in 1977; Dallas won 23-7

7. New England (-22) vs. Miami in 2007; New England won 28-7

8. Dallas (-21.5) vs. Philadelphia in 1987; Dallas won 41-22

9T. New England (-20.5) vs. Indianapolis in 2011; Patriots won 31-24

9T. Kansas City (-20.5) vs. New York Jets in 2020, TBD

Source: TheLines.com