‘Cobra Kai’ Netflix Success Highlights A Problem For Hollywood

Netflix cannot depend on hand-me-downs, and other studios can’t justify producing low-rated shows and movies that eventually become hits on a rival streaming service.

It’s tempting to be annoyed at the various folks, including myself frankly, who didn’t get around to watching Sony’s Cobra Kai when it was a YouTube Red original (before the platform gave up on original scripted content) but are now flocking to it in large numbers upon its debut on Netflix. The two seasons of the critically-acclaimed cult show, a TV version of a legacy sequel for The Karate Kid, has been Netflix’s top offering since last Friday. Its success on Netflix is good for the show, but it’s yet another example of audiences ignoring a high-quality show or movie in its original platform (theaters, TV or rival streaming platforms) only to show up when it arrived on Netflix. That model isn’t sustainable, as Netflix cannot rely on rival companies producing commercial bombs (and cult hits) just so they can be “rescued” by Netflix after the fact.

The show, again starring William Zabka as Johnny Lawrence and Ralph Macchio as Daniel LaRusso, finds the two former high school rivals reentering each other’s lives 34 years after the fateful events of The Karate Kid. The 20-episode series does touch on the events of The Karate Kid part II and The Karate Kid part III. However, it doesn’t require you to have seen the movies, as relevant flashbacks fill in the blanks for newbies and the core conflicts and character beats are compelling sans any emotional attachment to the films. Like the formula crafted by Creed and Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Cobra Kai uses the original cast members as elders as younger (and comparatively ethnically inclusive) teens (Xolo Mariduena, Mary Mouser, Tanner Buchanan and Peyton List) undertake a similar (but not identical) journey. The twist is that the show is as sympathetic toward Johnny as Daniel.  

The show is arguably told from the point-of-view of the first film’s baddie, as the “peaked in high school” Mr. Lawrence finds himself adrift with a broken marriage and a teen son who can’t stand him. The “plot” kicks in as Lawrence decides to reopen the Cobra Kai studio and bring its hard-nosed “Strike first. Strike hard. No mercy” creed into the 21st century. No spoilers, but the show is far more complex than either “Ha ha, Cobra Kai doesn’t work in today’s woke society!” or “Hey, Daniel is the bad guy this time around!” It’s every bit as good as you’ve heard, and with just two seasons of ten 25-35-minute episodes each, it’s a pretty breezy binge. There are, more or less, no villains as the primary conflicts stem from a failure to communicate, a presumption of motivation based on decades-ago interactions and sometimes just cruel random chance.

I am happy that the show is finding an audience, and that it’ll get a third season thanks to Netflix. However, it is another example of a show or movie failing or under-performing in its intended distribution platform only to develop a mainstream following once it debuted on a major (usually but not always Netflix) streaming platform. And it’s one thing to argue that most folks weren’t terribly aware of the various original shows on YouTube Red. Heck, I pay for YouTube Red (mostly because it allows me to turn the image off on my phone so I can listen to YouTube content while I drive) and I never bothered to check the show out, so I’m as guilty as anyone else. But the likes of Lifetime’s You and Fox’s Lucifer, which struggled on TV only to become Netflix sensations, suggest a broader problem.

You, based on Caroline Kepnes’ novels about a stalker (Penn Badgley) pursuing his latest theoretical conquest (Elizabeth Lail), debuted to relative indifference (despite decent critical notices) on Lifetime back in September of 2018. It was renewed for a second season but then essentially canceled on Lifetime, instead becoming a Netflix original. And, yes, the show became a media-friendly sensation when that first season started airing on Netflix, with a second season debuting in late 2019 and a third season expected in 2021. Lucifer likewise aired for three relatively low-rated seasons on Fox, with the DC Comics adaptation (starring Tom Ellis as the Devil who shows up in LA and starts solving crimes) picking up popularity and media attention when it started airing on Netflix. The fourth season, as well as the just-launched fifth season, were Netflix-exclusives, as will be the second half of the fifth season and the eventual sixth season.  

There are any number of shows (The Office, Parks and Recreations, etc.) and movies (Angry Birds Movie 2, Mr. Peabody and Sherman, etc.) that floundered in their initial/intended distribution channels only to thrive when they arrived as streaming picks. Regardless of whether CBS Films get much money when Peter Berg and Mark Wahlberg’s Patriot Day becomes the most-watched movie on Netflix on Independence Day or whether Sony gets a few extra bucks in the till when How Do You Know? becomes momentarily becomes popular on Netflix, that’s not sustainable for either party. First, the other services can’t keep putting out under-watched TV shows and theatrical bombs merely for them to become momentarily huge on a streaming service. If “big” theatrical movies shoot to the top/near the top of Netflix’s daily most-watched list partially because they were big theatrical movies, well, Netflix still needs those films to thrive.

The popularity of “old” shows and movies, even shows that eventually get new episodes just for Netflix, shows that Netflix can’t just thrive on 100% Netflix original content. Yes, The Umbrella Academy season 2 was the top show for Nielsen’s newly-announced streaming ratings (for the week of August 3), but everything else was not a Netflix original. Shows like Showtime’s Shameless, ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy, the CW’s Supernatural and CBS’s Criminal Minds have to exist elsewhere before they can become comfort-binges for Netflix. That’s doubly true considering how few Netflix originals survive for more than three seasons.  A show like Schitt’s Creek had to exist as Canadian television for five seasons before it could become a Netflix hit, complete with copious free media attention and apparently every moment turned into its own gif. Had it been a Netflix original, we’d be lucky to have gotten 30 episodes let alone 80.

Would The Boss Baby: Back in Business be as successful for Netflix without the DreamWorks theatrical hit The Boss Baby? Netflix has a plethora of DreamWorks titles (Puss in Boots is currently one of their most-watched movies at the moment), all of which had to exist as theatrical releases (most of them successful) before they could become popular streaming picks or receive popular episodic spin-offs.  Generally speaking, the entire entertainment industry cannot exist just to fail, partially because too many folks view Netflix as the be all/end all for content availability, just so those titles can become Netflix hits. But despite the free media and buzz, as well as initially large viewership often earned by Netflix original shows and movies like Teenage Bounty Hunters and The Old Guard (you can argue that Netflix has perfected the “quick-kill blockbuster”), the streaming service still depends on other studios’ hits and failures.

Cobra Kai is a hit on Netflix, even if I again squirm at a rival’s network or platform’s show being sold and accepted as a “Netflix original.” As much as we may note the pattern of shows and movies dying elsewhere in the entertainment eco-system only to become Netflix sensations, that first requires another studio or platform to fail before Netflix can make that show or movie “succeed.” Rival studios and companies can’t justify creating shows or releasing movies that nobody watches until they get to Netflix. Netflix needs to be in a position where they aren’t partially dependent on glorified hand-me-downs, especially as third-party titles become fewer and fewer as studios start keeping their own content for their own streaming platforms. At the very least, we consumers should try to watch these movies and shows where they originated rather than waiting for them to become the newest Netflix sensation.