Could A Shortened Or Canceled 2020 Season Cost Mets Ace Jacob deGrom His Hall Of Fame Shot?

The question was filled with a sense of optimistic wonder last fall before Jacob deGrom has even officially joined the select club of two-time Cy Young Award winners: Could he join the even more exclusive fraternity of three-time Cy Young Award winners and place himself on the fast track to the Hall of Fame?

Now the question is far more plaintive: Will a season shortened or canceled by some combination of the coronavirus pandemic and the intransigence of owners cost deGrom, the winner of the last two NL Cy Young Awards, his shot at the Hall of Fame?

There’ll be a certain sense of what-if for everyone whose career is impacted by a shortened or canceled season. And while the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Clayton Kershaw, Albert Pujols, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander may all fall short of certain statistical milestones because of missing time in their 30s and beyond, they’re still going to remain on pace to cruise into Cooperstown the moment they are eligible. (We’re assuming Mike Trout, still somehow only 28 years old and only heading into his ninth season, one shy of the minimum needed for Hall of Fame consideration, will make up for this season by hitting 90 homers while producing an OPS+ of 300, accumulating 20.0 WAR and winning the MVP in both leagues in 2021)

But as sensational as deGrom has been in his six big league seasons — more on that shortly — the Mets ace, who turns 32 on June 19, has neither Trout’s luxury of time nor the lengthy resumes already built by the 30-something sure-fire Hall of Famers. DeGrom, drafted by the Mets the ninth round in 2010 after spending most of his college career as a shortstop, didn’t make his big league debut until May 15, 2014.

There have been few better pitchers in baseball since then. DeGrom ranks second in ERA at 2.62 (minimum 1,000 innings pitched) behind only Kershaw while ranking sixth in strikeouts. (He’s 21st in wins because the Mets, as we all know, are so freaked out by his dominance that they can’t score while he’s on the mound)

Among pitchers who have debuted since World War II, only two have produced a better ERA over their first six seasons than deGrom — Mets icon Tom Seaver (2.43) and Kershaw (2.60). These names should look familiar, because they’re two of the 10 men to win at least three Cy Youngs. Seven of the eight Hall of Fame-eligible pitchers — everyone except steroid-tainted Roger Clemens — is in Cooperstown, with Scherzer and Kershaw well on their way.

But deGrom’s late start means he is trying to gain ground at an age when most of the men in the three Cy club had already built their cases. Greg Maddux (four) and Pedro Martinez were done winning Cy Youngs before their 30th birthdays. Sandy Koufax famously won his third Cy Young in his final season at age 30. Seaver and Jim Palmer also won their final Cy Youngs at age 30. Clemens won the third of his record seven Cy Youngs in 1991, when he turned 29 years old. Kershaw won his most recent in 2014, when he was 26.

DeGrom’s closest comps are Steve Carlton (a four-time Cy Young Award winner who won his final three trophies between ages 32 and 37), Randy Johnson (who won all five of his Cy Youngs between his age-31 and age-38 seasons) and Scherzer, whose previous two Cy Youngs came in back-to-back fashion in 2016 and 2017, the seasons in which he celebrated his 32nd and 33rd birthdays.

But Carlton, Johnson and Scherzer all had plenty of service time under their belts before their first 30-something Cy Young. DeGrom entered 2020 still barely halfway to qualifying for a Hall of Fame ballot. He needed to use those four-and-a-half seasons to not only win that third Cy Young but to also build the counting stats needed to bolster his candidacy even in an era in which the electorate is no longer married to the old standards of 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts.

In a best-case scenario — i.e. one in which a season isn’t shortened or canceled due to a once-a-century pandemic or a subsequent standoff between players and owners— he wasn’t going to get the opportunities Maddux, Palmer, Martinez, Kershaw and Clemens got, or are getting, to further burnish a rock-solid Hall of Fame case.

Maddux won another 205 games and threw another 2,887 2/3 innings over his final 13 big league seasons. Palmer went 94-59 with a 3.28 ERA over 1,443 1/3 innings following his final Cy Young. Martinez was 50 games over .500 (94-44) with a 3.23 ERA in his last nine seasons. Kershaw, as evidenced by his place ahead of deGrom on the ERA charts since 2014, has been pretty darn good even without adding another Cy Young to his mantle. And Clemens, whether he had any help or not, won four more Cy Youngs after turning 34.

A lot had to go right for deGrom to not only win that third Cy Young but to move into the Hall of Fame conversation. And it still could go his way. DeGrom is famously focused and competitive and appears to have the type of impeccable mechanics that could allow him to age well. No one should be surprised if he has another elite half-season in 2020, followed by four more excellent seasons — or if those four excellent seasons follow a 2020 in which nobody plays.

But still, a generational pitcher missing all or part of a season at age 32 could be far more costly than it would be if the pitcher were 28. DeGrom can only hope its not enough to cost him his shot at Cooperstown.