Could The U.S. Elections Shift Momentum On Climate Action?

The United States is at a crossroads that will shape its response to climate change, and could put on a path to cooperate, or collide, with the EU and other nations across the world that are linking their economic recovery from the pandemic with climate action. When it comes to climate change policies, the EU and the U.S. seem to be miles apart. The EU has set out the overly ambitious goal to become the world’s first carbon-neutral continent by 2050, while the Trump administration has in the last 4 years weakened or wiped out, over 125 rules and policies aimed at protecting the environment. 

Trump’s Climate Rollbacks

It hadn’t always been like this. The EU and the United States worked closely to negotiate the 2015 Paris Agreement in which 195 signatories set voluntary limits on greenhouse gas emission. Now, Trump aims to withdraw the U.S. from the agreement –the withdrawal is scheduled to take effect this week. “The Paris Agreement relies on Nationally Determined Contributions from parties, meaning enhanced ambition and implementation relies largely on state-level policy,” says Jale Tosun professor of political science at the Institute of Political Science at the Heidelberg University. “Most EU heads of government find it difficult to understand why the United States want to pull out of something that is already less ambitious than the previous regime [the Kyoto Protocol],” Tosun adds. 

The Trump administration’s environmental rollbacks are severe. He has “made a concerted effort to dismantle or roll back domestic federal policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” Laura Diaz says, Anadon professor of climate change at the University of Cambridge. “Some of the most important actions [apart from the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement] are replacing the Clean Power Plan by the Affordable Clean Energy Rule -which weakened the expected emission reductions from the power sector-, reducing the stringency of vehicle fuel efficiency standards and weakening rules on methane flaring,” she says. In contrast, the EU, the UK and recently Japan and China, have set net-zero targets and “are crafting COVID recovery packages with a strong Green Recovery component,” says Diaz. 

The Road Ahead

If President Trump gets re-elected, apart from the obvious impact on global greenhouse gas emissions, the more severe impact could be on international mitigation activities and on the international climate action momentum. “This was already apparent with the Clean Energy Ministerial which was a successful ‘climate club’ until 2016 and which the U.S. has now withdrawn from,” Tosun says. “With the United States giving up leadership in both international climate politics and climate clubs, it will become more difficult to convince states such as the UAE or Saudi Arabia to join in the international efforts for curbing carbon emissions,” she adds. 

With the US being the second largest CO2 emitter after China, “having the US absent from international conversations on decarbonization and actively dismantling its own efforts can be used as an excuse to not take action by governments and private actors internationally,” Diaz explains.

Biden Offers A Glimpse Of Green Hope

But Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, has repeatedly attacked President Trump on his climate change denial and is promising a more active role in tackling climate change. He has pledged to rejoin the Paris Agreement and has committed to spending $2 trillion over four years in clean-energy infrastructure, while also vowing to cut carbon emissions from electrical power to zero in 15 years.

Biden has also promised to connect tackling climate change with the economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis, something that is aligned with the EU’s plans. If he wins he has a difficult road ahead to address climate change. “ If Biden wins decarbonizing the electricity sector quickly with a combination of standards and price incentives, increasing investments” in climate-related R&D, “creating incentives and regulations for the decarbonizing industry, and supporting the electrification of personal transport,” should be his immediate and key climate priorities says Diaz.

With two-thirds of Americans supporting aggressive action on tackling climate change, according to a Pew Research poll released in June, it remains to be seen whether the climate agenda will play a role in appointing the new POTUS at this year’s U.S. elections.