D.J. Augustin Is Risky Free Agent Signing For Milwaukee Bucks

D.J. Augustin and the Milwaukee Bucks appeared to be natural fits for one another before free agency ever began. After agreeing to send away their top point guards in Eric Bledsoe and George Hill as a part of the budding trade for Jrue Holiday, it didn’t take long for the two sides to come to a conclusion and make this partnership official, as they agreed to a three-year $21 million deal with the third year being fully non-guaranteed.

As Milwaukee tinkered with the rest of their roster over the weekend—including the signings of Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes and Torrey Craig—let’s take a look at the pros and cons of their new backup point guard.

Pro: Pick-and-roll playmaking

In Augustin, the Bucks are getting a crafty veteran who can lead their second unit by creating shots for both himself and others through the pick-and-roll game. Not one to blow by his man, Augustin has learned how to use change of speeds and directions, (legal) shoulder bumps and other subtle tactics to keep his defender off balance and guessing about what’s coming next.

He’s worked hard to hone this craft over the past decade—and it shows. Among the 56 players to run at least five possessions a game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler Augustin holds his own by averaging 0.94 points per possession (tied for 19th)—tied with Goran Dragic and Derrick Rose and just ahead of guys like CJ McCollum, Devin Booker and Malcolm Brogdon.

He understands the nuances of this game within the game and routinely makes basic reads to find the open player. That will be huge considering all the attention someone like Giannis Antetokounmpo draws as a roll man in this pairing. If the defense collapses on Antetokunmpo’s rim runs, Augustin has both the shooting abilities and passing prowess to get an open look on the perimeter.

Con: Individual defense

Where he thrives on the ball on offense, he has equal struggles in that same position at the other end of the court. Undersized at just 5-foot-11 and 183 pounds, Augustin lacks the physical tools to defend most point guards in the NBA which means he routinely gets targeted by the opposition. Most of the advanced defensive metrics—which are far from perfect—really dislike him.

The Bucks will have to make sure they pair Augustin with a strong defender in the backcourt—Jrue Holiday would be a great option. This would allow someone like Holiday to take on the tougher defensive assignments while Milwaukee hides Augustin off ball. Ensuring either Antetokounmpo or Brook Lopez are on the court to clean up his mistakes will also be a critical lineup maneuver.

Pro: Pull-up threes

Even though George Hill hit a scalding 46 percent of his three-pointers last year, the Bucks actually got more dynamic behind the arc with the addition of Augustin. The reason? His ability to hit pull-up threes off the bounce. Despite knocking down just 29.5 percent on two attempts per game last year, Augustin has made at least 38.9 percent in four of the seven years the NBA has tracked the stat.

Just like everything else he does, Augustin works at his own pace when knocking down threes behind the arc. In the below clips, you can see how calmly he comes off the ball screen, reads the defense and flows in rhythm into his shot. This keeps the defense honest and ensures both his man and the help defenders can’t leave him until he gives the ball up. When you combine his pull-up capabilities with his passing prowess, it creates a dangerous skill set for opposing defenses in the half court.

Con: Age and length of contract

The fact that a 33-year-old point guard coming off one of the worst shooting seasons of his career (more on this later) was able to fleece the Bucks for three years and $21 million is the biggest downfall of this deal (even if the third year is fully non-guaranteed). Initially, some cap exerts figured Augustin would be able to secure a contract worth around the bi-annual exception, a tool Milwaukee happened to have available. Instead, he used up just about all of their mid-level exception money. That’s some great work by his agent. With his best days behind him, we’ll see if playing on a championship-contending team can help rejuvenate Augustin’s game.

Pro: Catch-and-shoot threes

Not only is Augustin a good three-point shooter off the bounce, but he can also knock down threes in catch-and-shoot scenarios; making at least 41.6 percent in each of the past three seasons. This will be most valuable when he’s playing off ball with the starters—something Budenholzer could roll with down the stretch of tight games. Putting Augustin alongside Holiday, Khris Middleton, Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez makes it difficult for defenses to choose who to stray from when the reigning MVP attacks the paint.

Con: Down season or a troubling trend?

As contradictory as it may seem to list both pull-up and catch-and-shoot threes in the pro section while also bringing up his outside shooting woes from a season ago, it’s the unfortunate reality with this signing. Augustin has demonstrated a history of being dangerous behind the arc, however, that history doesn’t include the 2019-20 campaign. His overall three-point percentage (34.8 percent) from last season not only ranks below league average, but was also three whole points lower from his career mark. This number dropped thanks to his third-worst season on catch-and-shoot threes and singularly worst season on pull-up threes since the NBA began tracking this data in 2013-14.

There’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic and think he’ll revert back to his career averages (which is why those skills are listed as pros), but there’s a world where his three-point percentages stays where it was last year. And if he’s not hitting from the outside, he isn’t nearly as valuable as his contract suggests. It will be important to see if Augustin can bounce back after his down shooting season or if it was the beginning of a troubling trend.