Delays For ‘Tenet’ And ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ Were Not Yesterday’s Biggest Release Date News

The delay of the fourth Matrix and The Batman leaves Warner Bros. without an A-level summer offering for next year.

Chris Nolan’s Tenet has been moved from July 17 to July 31, with a 10th anniversary reissue of Inception taking the July 17 slot in participating theaters. I guess this is the compromise, since Nolan may sell the rerelease as “the start” of Hollywood’s theatrical comeback following nearly four months of mostly closed theaters. Even if Walt Disney
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’s Mulan sticks to its July 24 date, I’m sure WB will try to push the idea that Inception was still “first.”

Wonder Woman 1984 has been pushed from August 14 to October 2, the same slot as Gravity, Annabelle, Blade Runner 2049, A Star Is Born, Joker and (in 2021) The Batman. Godzilla Vs. Kong has moved from November 20, 2020 to May 21, 2021, sending The Matrix 4 to April 1, 2022. That leaves Warner Bros. without a 1600 lbs. summer heavyweight for next year.

Robert Zemeckis’ re-adaptation of The Witches, starring Anne Hathaway, has been pushed from October 9 to a date to be determined. Tom & Jerry will now open on March 5, 2021, while an untitled New Line horror flick (James Wan’s Malignant?) will now open on June 4, 2021. Solstice Studios’ Unhinged will now open on July 10 instead of July 1.

I’d expect Disney’s Mulan to take the August 14 slot, especially now that The One and Only Ivan is being sent to Disney+, but I digress. Oh, and Orion has moved Bill & Ted Face the Music up a week to August 14, meaning Lionsgate’s Antebellum is currently unopposed on August 21.

So, yes, we’re waiting two extra weeks (at best) for the John David Washington/Robert Pattinson sci-fi thriller and two more months for the Gal Gadot/Chris Pine superhero sequel. The bigger news is that the delay of Lana Wachowski’s The Matrix 4 (or whatever it’s titled) joins Matt Reeves’ The Batman (moved from June 25, 2021 to October 1, 2021) leaves Warner Bros. without a surefire mega-hit.

All due respect to Adam Wingard’s Godzilla Vs. Kong, but the “Godzilla v King Kong: Must Save Mothra” match-up was moved from March 13, 2020 to November 20, 2020 precisely because Godzilla: King of the Monsters underperformed in May of 2019. The five-years-later sequel to Godzilla ($200 million domestic and $529 million worldwide) earned just $105 million domestic and $385 million worldwide on a $185 million budget.

Yes, I do believe that “Godzilla versus the other giant monster folks have actually heard of” is a bigger deal than “Godzilla vs. monsters that only the fans care about” to general audiences. But how much bigger of a deal? Save for the Jurassic movies, we’ve never had a “giant monster movie” flick earn more than the $567 million (Kong: Skull Island in 2017) worldwide, although the adjusted-for-inflation totals of Peter Jackson’s King Kong ($218.1 million domestic and $550.5 million in 2005 sans 3-D) would likely be around $779 million today.

The Meg earned $530 million in 2018, Rampage earned $430 million in 2018 and Pacific Rim earned $411 million in 2013. Could Godzilla Vs. Kong be the first giant monster movie outside of the Jurassic Park/Jurassic World movies to go the distance? Yes, but it wasn’t remotely a guarantee and there’s a difference between “first past $600 million” and “equal to whatever The Matrix 4 was going to earn.”

By default, James Gunn’s The Suicide Squad (still set for August 5, 2021) may be WB’s biggest summer theatrical. And even that’s a coin toss. If the $325 million domestic/$745 million global success of David Ayer’s Suicide Squad in August of 2016 was partially due to Will Smith in a movie star turn along with extended  cameos from Ben Affleck’s Batman and Jared Leto’s Joker, then The Suicide Squad has an uphill battle.

Margot Robbie will return as Harley Quinn (along with Viola Davis as Amanda Waller), but  Suicide Squad wasn’t a beloved franchise starter. Audiences liked it more than critics, but at least some of its post-debut legs (a 2.43x multiplier despite a 67% second-weekend drop after a $133 million debut) was just a matter of those aforementioned elements as well as being the last biggie of the summer.

It still has the “last mega-movie of summer” advantage, but it won’t have the one-two punch of both Wonder Woman 1984 and The Batman to get folks excited.  This is not to say Godzilla vs. Kong and/or The Suicide Squad will bomb. Both could theoretically top $500 million worldwide and, presuming budgets are kept in check, qualify as solid hits. But The Matrix 4 and The Batman were likely to earn a lot more for Warner Bros. (and theaters in general) next summer compared to those two.

Ditto Jon M. Chu and Lin Manual Miranda’s In the Heights, delayed from June 26, 2020 to June 18, 2021. The already anticipated musical will almost certainly be a hit, but summers are not made or lost on In the Heights or Crazy Rich Asians ($174 million domestic and $238 million worldwide), even if the Anthony Ramos/Melissa Barrera/Corey Hawkins stage adaptation should perform much better in China.

I’m guessing LeBron James’ Space Jam: Legacy (July 16, 2021) is budgeted where $300 million is a big win, but I digress. Warner’s biggest summer movie in 2021 may be, by default, the Zack Snyder cut of Justice League.  The new version of the failed 2017 superhero sequel will premiere sometime next year (presumably next summer) on HBO Max as either a four-hour feature of a weekly mini-series event. If it comes to that, I would not be surprised to see this movie get some kind of theatrical release.

This isn’t just an issue for Warner Bros. With Matrix 4 and Batman sent elsewhere, the entire summer movie season may depend on whether Walt Disney and Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (May 7, 2021) and Universal
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’s Jurassic World: Dominion (June 11, 2021) are able to complete production in time. The only other surefire mega-movies are Universal and Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru and (hopefully) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (June 25).

Heck, if all goes wrong, Justice League: The Snyder Cut may be Hollywood’s biggest summer 2021 movie by default.