Economists Stick To Brexit Forecasts Despite No-deal Rhetoric

Economists at Commerzbank, Rabobank and Nomura also kept their forecasts that a deal was most likely scenario.

While there is an expectation that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will not go as far as to “eliminate the legal force of parts of the withdrawal agreement”, a possibility reported by the Financial Times, economists said they had to take that into account.

“While our base case remains a semi-managed hard exit (60% probability) which involves some modest stop-gap measures to manage the transition from EU to WTO rules for trade, the rising tensions could limit the breadth of any such measures,” said Kallum Pickering, a senior economist at Berenberg.

Moving forward however, the perception could quickly deteriorate if London and Brussels keep up their tug of war.