Economists Warn U.S. GDP Won’t Recover To Pre-Pandemic Levels Until 2022

TOPLINE

The United States remains stuck in a recession and it will likely take years for economic growth to return to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels, economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) warned on Monday.

KEY FACTS

Big numbers

Nearly 75% of NABE respondents said that the optimal size for the next coronavirus stimulus package should be $1 trillion or greater, while 17% advocated for a smaller bill of less than $1 trillion.

Surprising fact

A majority of experts also say that the U.S. job market won’t recover until 2022 at the earliest. 18% anticipate a labor market recovery in 2021, 41% not until 2022 and 34% not before 2023, according to the NABE’s survey.

What to watch for

The upcoming 2020 presidential election could further influence U.S. economic growth, respondents said. A majority (62%) believe that former Vice President Joe Biden would do a better job of promoting economic growth than President Trump (25%). “Panelists were asked to select the three most important policy issues that the next presidential administration should address during its first year in office,” said Survey Chair Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics. “Combating COVID-19, promoting economic recovery, and health policy were cited more frequently than a dozen other choices.”

Key background

The NABE’s Economic Policy Survey summarized responses from 235 economists. The survey follows the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) determination that the U.S. economy fell into a recession in February, as the coronavirus pandemic resulted in large-scale business shutdowns and layoffs.

Further reading

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These 10 Stocks Are All Up More Than 140% Since The Coronavirus Sell-Off (Forbes)

Stocks Turn Negative After Federal Reserve Says U.S. Economy Still ‘Well Below’ Pre-Pandemic Levels (Forbes)

S&P 500 Closes At New Record High, Fully Recovering Losses From Coronavirus Pandemic (Forbes)

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