Election’s Impact On Holiday Shopping, Null

Elections in the past have not had a material impact on holiday shopping, although typically during the election process, there may be a lull in shopping behavior. The election in 2020 is on day three of the fiscal month of November for most retailers, giving ample time for sales to bounce back before the month ends. Andrew Lipsman, principal analyst of eMarketer, said in an interview, “There is a two-day hangover effect from elections; in the last election e-commerce went down but rebounded on the third day.” 

Last year election distraction resulted in an online sales loss of $800 million

Adobe Digital Insights showed that for the 2016 election (November 8) online shoppers dramatically cut back their spending around November 1st through the 14th, resulting in a sales loss of $800 million. However, November’s online sales rebounded for the month, ending up over 16.3%. Holiday sales for November and December of 2016 were up 4.4%. 

Although election results can affect consumer sentiment, particularly among those who oppose the victor, the drop in sentiment does not translate to less spending. Lipsman recalled a 2016 quarterly consumer survey that showed in a strong economy, while sentiment dropped in some quarters, consumer spending did not change. He stated, “Divisions in consumer sentiment will not necessarily correlate to divergence in spending patterns.”

Factors impacting customer purchasing behavior

Other factors surrounding the election may have a broader impact on customer shopping. Some retailers are anticipating possible social unrest keeping shoppers away from physical stores while others are taking proactive measures to minimize business disruption. Prolonged elections distract people from shopping until a winner is decided, similar to what happened in 2016. 

Economic factors such as income and employment will have a larger effect on holiday purchasing. A second stimulus COVID relief package would have thrust more dollars towards retail sales as was seen in the first quarter. Lipsman said that elections do not have an impact on holiday spending: “If people have money, they spend it.”

The holiday titans 

Holiday 2020 has other days on the calendar that will more significantly impact the sales results than November 3rd. Prime Day in October spurred a flurry of early Black Friday promotions across many retailers including Best Buy
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, Walmart
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, Targe
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t, Macy’s
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, Nordstro
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m and others. Singles’ Day, Alibaba’s
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event that takes place every November 11th (11/11) and has gained popularity in the U.S. market. Last year Singles’ Day pulled in $2.7 billion, 38% more than the previous year, and will continue to widen its reach as more retailers create marketing promotions around the event. The shift to digital shopping will bring between 38-50% increases in online shopping for Cyber Monday, Black Friday and Thanksgiving. 

The Pandemic and economic factors most impact holiday shopping

Holiday shopping will be most impacted by the current pandemic (customers need to feel safe while shopping) and also by economic factors including income and unemployment rates. The election, while impassioned, will not have a material impact on consumer spending over the duration of the holiday.