Errol Spence Vs. Danny Garcia: The Betting Odds Have Tightened Dramatically Since Spence Car Crash

With a report this week from The Athletic that Errol Spence will battle Danny Garcia in a boxing PPV showdown in the fall, the odds that have been released in the past day show that Spence is not nearly the favorite he would have been before his devastating car crash.

When the idea of a welterweight title fight between Spence and Garcia was first broached last October, Spence—my No. 1 welterweight in the world—was listed as a -600 favorite with Garcia coming in at +400. But after a terrible-looking car crash seven months ago that left Spence with an injured face and several broken teeth, Spence is now -260 (5/13) while Garcia is +200 (2/1), according to the latest odds on BetOnline.ag.

That’s not a unanimous opinion, though. According to at least one U.K. sports book, Spence is a bigger favorite.

Spence (26-0, 21 KOs) is coming off a tough but victorious performance against Shawn Porter (No. 4 on my welterweight list) in September that was preceded by a dominant win vs. Mikey Garcia six months earlier. Spence has also talked online trash with Terence Crawford as the two best 147-pounders in the world continue to circle each other as boxing politics (Spence is with Premier Boxing Champions and Crawford is promoted by Top Rank, and the two companies rarely work together) keeps them from physically engaging.

Though it was assumed Spence would take a tune-up fight in his first appearance since he flipped his Ferrari, Garcia (36-2, 21 KOs) provides a real threat to his undefeated record.

Boxer Rankings

In 2018, Garcia (No. 5 on my welterweight list) lost a close decision to Porter, but he’s rebounded with victories against Adrian Granados and Ivan Redkach. Garcia has plenty of skills, and he’s a standout counter-puncher. If Spence isn’t ready or is still feeling the effects of ring rust because of his car accident, Garcia certainly has the tools to pull off the upset.

“I feel like that’s a great style for me because Porter was hitting him a lot,” Garcia told the PBC Podcast last month. “And I seen things in the Mikey Garcia fight that I can definitely take advantage of and defeat him. I have some big wins in my career, I’ve fought some pretty high-level fights. But it’ll rank among those big wins.”

Meanwhile, Spence told the SHOWTIME Basketball YouTube channel in April that he has few restrictions on his training. Until he gets his permanent teeth, though, he’s not allowed to spar.

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