Expect The Cincinnati Reds And Trevor Bauer To Get Experimental In A Short Season

Let’s assume that we all do a great job of social distancing, hand washing, and the rest, and that eventually there is enough testing to allow for the re-opening of society, and, at some point, baseball games. What will follow would be a shortened season, unlike any before in baseball history. Teams are built to play 162 games, but chop off about one hundred of those, and you’re looking at a very different season. There’s also the heightened injury risk from players ramping up to game speed after a prolonged layoff. Teams may look to create a new playbook on the fly, and one team and player that won’t be shy about that are the Cincinnati Reds and starting pitcher Trevor Bauer.

Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson alluded to some experimental thinking in a recent interview with MLB.com:

“I think it could be really interesting,” Johnson said. “I think there’s all sorts of different combinations that you could look at here and they can all make some sort of sense.”

If there are something like 1000 fewer innings to fill, and the fear that pitchers may be at injury risk if they do too much too quickly, that suggests coming in for shorter stints, or even something like three pitchers getting three innings a piece over a game – something Tony La Russa once tinkered with in the early 90s as manager of the A’s.

Should the Reds get creative, they will likely have a willing participant in Trevor Bauer, whom they traded for last season. Bauer, known for his independent thinking, has said in the past that when he becomes a free agent after the 2020 season, he wants to sign with a team that will let him pitch every four days instead of the usual five. A short season might provide the sort of laboratory Bauer needs to trial such an idea. He could start with short outings, perhaps just one time through the order, and work up to 18 batters every four days.

That would allow him to face a good number of hitters while avoiding the “third time through the order” penalty. Most pitchers get worse each time they see a batter, due to some combination of fatigue and familiarity, and Bauer is no exception. Last season he gave up a 3.44 ERA the first time through the order, a 4.92 mark the second time and 5.56 the third time. While he maintained his strikeout rate through games, he would give up harder contact as the game went on, and also start issuing more free passes.

Another concept that has been brought up in the past is having starting pitchers available out of the bullpen on their throw days. Pitchers generally throw for a bit on one day between starts. However, this doesn’t involve the same strain and blood pressure of trying to get Major League hitters out. Perhaps if pitchers knew the schedule in advance, they could try out such a program as a way to bolster the bullpen while starters are having their outings trimmed as a health precaution.

If we have a season, it will be an unusual one. Fortune may favor the teams and players most willing to ignore convention and try out something that hasn’t been done in modern times, just like the season itself. Stay safe out there.