NEW DELHI: A deadly heat wave could burn the economy. In just another decade, India would be among the first places where extreme heat would make working outdoors dangerous, says a report released by global management consulting firm McKinsey. Since about 50% of India’s GDP is dependent on heat-exposed work — agriculture, mining and construction — there would be an immediate, palpable impact, one worth $250 billion.
The report, out early this week, which analyses the physical risks climate change poses in Asia, found that between 160 million and 200 million people could be living in areas that are vulnerable to deadly heat waves by 2030. In another 20 years after that, the range would double to 310-480 million. A lethal heat wave occurs when average daily maximum wetbulb temperature (the lowest to which air can be cooled with evaporating water) reaches a point that can kill a healthy human resting in shade.
“Climate models project that some areas of India may become the first places on Earth to be exposed to heat and humidity so extreme that, without adaptation measures such as air-conditioning, healthy adults risk succumbing to heat waves in large numbers,” the report said.
It would mean that working outside would become more and more difficult. “We estimate that the effective number of outdoor working hours lost in an average year … could rise by about 15% by 2030,” it added. “In India, a large percentage of employment is in the unorganised sector and often on a daily wage basis. It is even more important to ensure policies and regulations are framed to safeguard the most vulnerable in society,” Suvojoy Sengupta, partner at McKinsey & Company who contributed research to the report, told TOI.
And while the biggest impact will be on those who are most vulnerable economically, there will be a domino effect.
The report, out early this week, which analyses the physical risks climate change poses in Asia, found that between 160 million and 200 million people could be living in areas that are vulnerable to deadly heat waves by 2030. In another 20 years after that, the range would double to 310-480 million. A lethal heat wave occurs when average daily maximum wetbulb temperature (the lowest to which air can be cooled with evaporating water) reaches a point that can kill a healthy human resting in shade.
“Climate models project that some areas of India may become the first places on Earth to be exposed to heat and humidity so extreme that, without adaptation measures such as air-conditioning, healthy adults risk succumbing to heat waves in large numbers,” the report said.
It would mean that working outside would become more and more difficult. “We estimate that the effective number of outdoor working hours lost in an average year … could rise by about 15% by 2030,” it added. “In India, a large percentage of employment is in the unorganised sector and often on a daily wage basis. It is even more important to ensure policies and regulations are framed to safeguard the most vulnerable in society,” Suvojoy Sengupta, partner at McKinsey & Company who contributed research to the report, told TOI.
And while the biggest impact will be on those who are most vulnerable economically, there will be a domino effect.
