Faced With Covid Cases, Injured Players And Falling TV Ratings, The 2020 NFL Season Is Just About Survival

The Atlanta Falcons are the latest NFL team to shut down their facility due to coronavirus concerns. The Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots are just getting over their own outbreaks, and with cases in the U.S. climbing to a third peak, it seems inevitable the virus will continue to spread around NFL locker rooms. That means more games will likely be rescheduled, creating even more chaos.

Meanwhile, 21 teams are playing games without fans in the stands, and TV ratings are plummeting. Star players also continue to come down with season-ending injuries. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is the latest marquee name to head to the sidelines.

If it wasn’t apparent before, it is clear now: this NFL season is just about survival. The league is operating in the same day-to-day predicament as tens of millions of Americans, trying to salvage as much as it can from the lost year of 2020.

A suspended season would be the worst-case scenario, and present dire economic consequences. The NFL earns roughly $7 billion per season in TV revenue, and that total is evenly divided among all 32 clubs. That figure guarantees nearly $219 million annually to every franchise.

Wiping out that revenue would be catastrophic for the league. It would also be ruinous for the players. NFL players stand to lose $3 billion in salary should the league be unable to finish the season. Since the average NFL career only lasts 3.3 years, most players would never be able to recoup the lost earnings. They would be losing time on their already limited earnings shelf-life.

Positive test rates among the league remain low. This week, the NFL announced only 15 positive tests from its last round of testing between Oct. 4 and Oct. 10. During that time, 37,912 tests were administered. The league-wide positive test rate stands at a minuscule .00039%.

But as we’ve seen, it only takes a few positive cases to sow disruption, even if they’re largely confined to one team. The Titans experienced 23 positive tests among players and staff, leading to their Week 4 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers getting pushed back to Oct. 25. Tennessee’s Week 5 contest against the Buffalo Bills was moved to Tuesday.

The game was played in Nashville, with Nissan Stadium filled to 12.5% capacity. The venue can seat 69,143 people.

The Patriots, meanwhile, recorded three positive tests among their players, including Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore. Their Week 4 game against the Kansas City Chiefs, who also had a positive test, was moved to Monday. New England’s Week 5 contest against the Denver Broncos was delayed to this week.

To accommodate the shuffling, the NFL was forced to make major adjustments to its schedule, affecting 10 teams over six different weeks. The changes created significant disparities between some teams, negatively impacting competitive balance. The Patriots and Broncos, for example, weren’t afforded any rest in what turned out to be a premature bye week. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has also complained about Covid forcing his team to take an unplanned bye week early in the season.

As of now, the Falcons, who the league says have had one staff member test positive, are scheduled to play their game Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings as scheduled, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. (Atlanta played its Week 3 game after cornerback A.J. Terrell had tested positive for Covid-19.)

But as we know, things can change quickly in the midst of a global pandemic that’s claimed the lives of almost 217,000 Americans. Another positive test with the Falcons could cause the league to reconsider

Under usual circumstances, it would be sacrilegious for the NFL to be so erratic with its schedule, considering the league-wide obsession over maintaining competitive advantages. It’s hard to imagine Bill Belichick, who’s deployed camera men to film other teams’ coaches, enjoying this whole process. NFL coaches, who are the ultimate control freaks, are now at the mercy of the virus and league scheduling office.

But concerns about competitive balance are secondary. It’s all about finishing the season, even if more players suffer season-ending injuries. There’s been a flurry of injuries across the league, which can likely be attributed to the lack of offseason training and preseason games.

An injury to a star player like Prescott certainly won’t help the NFL’s sagging TV ratings. Declines were once again prevalent across the Week 5 slate, with Sunday Night Football — a last-second thriller between the Seattle Seahawks and Vikings — coming in at 17% off last year’s number. CBS
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’ late-game, which featured the Cowboys and New York Giants, two of the best draws in football, was down 7%.

Overall, NFL ratings are down 13% this season.

The coronavirus pandemic has hampered ratings for every sports league, with only the PGA Tour and WNBA Finals seeing increases over last year. A hotly contested presidential election and surging cable news ratings probably doesn’t help matters, either.

Fewer people are watching on TV, no people are watching in most stadiums, and more teams are being forced to upend their plans. Like the rest of us, the NFL is just trying to make it to the finish line. It’s getting more complicated to maintain normalcy with each passing week.