PHOENIX, ARIZONA – APRIL 02: An aerial view at American Family Fields of Phoenix on April 2, 2021 in … [+]
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The stands at American Family Fields of Phoenix will be empty today, just like every other spring training stadium in Arizona and Florida, as Major League Baseball’s lockout stretches into its third month.
MLB owners and players have spent most of the last week at the negotiating table but it seems more and more unlikely that the sides will reach an agreement in time to avoid delaying the start of the regular season.
Of the myraid issues separating the two camps, few loom larger than the competitive balance tax, which owners say helps promote — obviously — competitive balance by keeping the largest-market teams from unlimited spending while players say the tax acts as a de facto salary cap.
The Brewers aren’t likely to face that issue any time soon. Milwaukee had a franchise-record $122.5 million payroll to start the 2019 season, spent $105.9 million last year and is estimated to start 2022 with a payroll of approximately $121 million, significantly below the $210 CBT threshold in place last season.
Other core issues — the perception of “tanking” by some teams and manipulation of service time — haven’t been a problem in Milwaukee but that’s not to say the Brewers have nothing to gain or lose during the process.
In fact, some of the lower-level issues stand to have the biggest impact on the Brewers:
Minimum Pay & Arbitration
From the day he was introduced as Milwaukee’s general manager late in the 2015 season, President of Baseball Operations David Stearns has made it clear that his primary goal in roster construction was to obtain and develop “young, controllable talent,” as opposed to try to compete with the league’s big-market clubs on the unpredictable free-agent market.
That means an emphasis on players who have yet to hit arbitration, whose salaries are determined by an internal formula without much in terms of negotiation between the two sides.
The owners’ most recent proposal would raise the minimum to $640,000 with $10,000 increases over each of the next four seasons while the players are proposing a minimum of $775,000 next season with increases of $30,000 for each of the next four seasons.
Last season, the Brewers had 12 players on the 40-man roster who were not yet eligble for arbitration and only two — reliever Jake Cousins and outfielder Tyrone Taylor — earned the league minimum of $570,500.
Reliever Devin Williams was the highest-paid of Milwaukee’s pre-arbitration players in 2021, earning $681,100 and the Brewers still have five such players unsigned for 2022.
The MLBPA also wants to see a bonus pool that would reward pre-arbitration players for success and while the owners were open to the idea, the sides are about $90 million apart on the size of that pool.
Arbitration
This is the second-biggest area of impact for the Brewers, at least from a financial standpoint, and will likely be the most significant moving forward as the key members of the team’s core become arbitration-eligible.
As part of its effort to get young players paid more earlier in their careers, the MLBPA proposed allowing 80 percent of players with 2-3 years of service time become arbitration-eligible — essentially expanding the current “Super 2” carveout which allows the top percentage of players with at least two years of service time to hit arbitration a year early — but any changes to the current arbitration system have been a non-starter for ownership.
Under the current system, in which players with at least three years of service time but no more than six can negotiate salaries through arbitration, the Brewers have 14 players on the 40-man roster eligible for arbitration.
That group includes the likes of Cy Young Award Winner Corbin Burnes, right-hander Brandon Woodruff, shortstop Willy Adames and closer Josh Hader and is expected to cost approximately $7.4 million in salary next season.
Option Limits
According to a Tweet from Evan Drellich of The Athletic, the league proposed limiting the number of times a player can be optioned in one season to five. Players, too, would like to see a limit but offered four in their latest proposal.
That’s a rule that would seem to directly impact the Brewers, who have had a bit of a revolving door on their final roster spot over the last few years.
Brent Suter is a prime example of how Milwaukee has used that spot. The left-hander bounced back and forth between the Brewers and Triple-A Colorado Springs five times during his rookie season in 2016.
Fellow pitchers Adrian Hosuer and Eric Later have found themselves shuttling back-and-forth between Milwaukee and Triple-A in the past, too, and though Suter’s case is on the extreme end, an option limit could impact one of the ways the Brewers maximize their roster and depth over the course of a season.
Universal DH
It’s almost certain that the new CBA — if and when it becomes final — will include a universal designated hitter, taking the bat out of the hands of pitchers in the National League.
That’s good news for the Brewers, who have seen first-hand the type of injuries possible when pitchers are in the batter’s box and on the base paths.
The DH would allow Milwaukee to add a power bat to its lineup without having to try and find a defensive fit but also gives manager Craig counsell the option of using that spot help give other players like outfielders Lorenzo Cain or Christian Yelich a quasi-day off.
The downside, of course, is losing the potential for moments like Woodruff’s home run off Clayton Kershaw in the 2018 NLCS, but considering how much Milwaukee struggled on offense in 2021, especially in the playoffs, any extra bat helps.
Expanded Playoffs
With a franchise-record streak of four consecutive postseason appearances, the Brewers are hoping they won’t need an expanded field to qualify for baseball’s playoffs but it’s always nice to have that option, especially if the NL Central returns to its tight-til-the-finsh form in 2022.
