Forget Coronavirus; The Quarterback Carousel Is The Main Reason Behind The NFL Schedule Delay

The unveiling of the NFL schedule is always hotly anticipated by fans, and that’s no different this year, even though it’s happening at the height of a pandemic that has put most of the sports world at a standstill.

The public fawning over the release is a striking reflection of America’s love affair with football. It offers little in the way of news since the matchups are pre-determined by the league’s scheduling model and the event merely shows when and where the games will take place. Still, last year, it commanded a two-hour broadcast on the NFL Network, with analysts poring over the most attractive prime-time matchups.

The excitement typically comes in April, before the NFL draft, but this year the release has been pushed to May, with the coronavirus outbreak typically cited as the cause. In fact, the main reason is this year’s unprecedented quarterback carousel.

“The NFL wanted to see where these guys ended up before locking in the schedule,” says one NFL team executive who asked not to be identified.

As a result of this year’s game of quarterback musical chairs, the May release date may turn out to be the new normal because it gives the league a chance to see which teams emerge as attractive TV options after the roster reshuffling of free agency, trades and the draft unfolds in March and April. Quarterbacks are simply the headline acts.

“This is not a new concept,” Brian Rolapp, the NFL’s chief media and business officer and the odds-on favorite to be the next commissioner, said on a media conference call at the end of March. “This is something we’ve talked about for some time for different reasons—creating flexibility, trying to see what would be best for the clubs.”

Top-level NFL quarterbacks rarely shift teams, but a range of circumstances produced a game of musical chairs this past month, with the music still playing for a couple of teams. Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater all left for starting jobs with new franchises while Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill and Dak Prescott stayed put. Jameis Winston and Joe Flacco remain unsigned, and Andy Dalton and Cam Newton are available via trade, or will otherwise likely be released. The draft will also likely feature three quarterbacks selected in the top ten.

Brady was the biggest domino to fall when he officially joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on March 20, after two decades and six Super Bowl titles with the New England Patriots. The move caused a much-needed spike in season ticket sales for Tampa, which ranked last in attendance in the NFC in 2019. Despite three straight losing seasons, the Bucs now have the sixth-best Super Bowl odds.

The Bucs were featured on prime time only once in each of the last two seasons. Look for the team to command the maximum five prime-time slots this year, along with traditional ratings titans like the Dallas Cowboys, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers as fans tune in to see Brady and his new pair of dynamic receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Maximizing the audience reach for the NFL’s best matchups is key to the league’s ratings success. Ratings for NFL games rose 5% on average last year as the rest of broadcast TV continued its steady descent. The NFL accounted for nearly three-quarters of 2019’s 100 most-watched broadcasts.

Brady is the rare NFL player who can move the viewership needle on his own. His merchandise is regularly the NFL’s top seller, and the only athlete more famous in the U.S. is Tiger Woods, based on celebrity awareness data from Q Scores (82% for Brady versus 88% for Tiger). 

The landing spots for several popular quarterbacks are still to be determined. Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP, has a large following, particularly among teens who have embraced his signature “dab” move. Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrows from LSU appears destined for the Cincinnati Bengals as the top overall draft pick. Another draft prospect, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, looked destined to be must-see programming before his hip injury likely impacted his 2020 playing prospects.

The coronavirus still hangs over the scheduling process and the entire sports world. New stadiums in Los Angeles and Las Vegas are under construction, and any delays could impact the schedules for those teams. Pro Football Talk’s Peter King figures the NFL schedule-makers are using the extra time to work on 12-game and 14-game schedule alternatives, but the league is moving forward with plans for 16 games.

“All of our discussion, all of our focus has been on a normal traditional season, starting on time, playing in front of fans, in our regular stadiums, and going through a full 16-game regular season and full set of playoffs,” NFL exec Jeff Pash said ten days ago.

Contingency scenarios are certainly being hashed out, though. One plan on the table, if the season start date needs to be pushed back, is to move September games to January. The NFL already requires all stadiums to hold weekend dates in January free for potential playoff games. This plan would allow the NFL to hold the Super Bowl by the end of February—an important deadline to get the 100 million-audience game in during sweeps month—and still maintain a 16-game schedule with a bye week.

The Buccaneer revealed their new uniform design this week. It was the bestselling new logo/uniform launch in NFL history, according to Fanatics. Bank on seeing those uniforms a lot on TV in 2020.