Fox News Questions Dr. Birx Over 100,000 Death Toll: ‘What Happened Doctor?’

TOPLINE

Fox News’ Chris Wallace challenged Dr. Deborah Birx on Sunday about the changing estimates for the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus, pointing out that she had cited a model in April that predicted just 60,000 Americans would die from the virus, and the death toll is now nearing 100,000.

KEY FACTS

The U.S. death toll is set to reach 100,000 this week, with some models predicting a spike in death rates as states reopen; the White House, meanwhile has repeatedly changed its estimates for how many Americans will perish from the disease.

“Look how much the model has changed in just a week — remember just a week ago it was 80,000, now it’s 60,000,” Birx said in a clip from April 10 played during the interview with Fox News’ Chris Wallace on Sunday. 

Wallace then pressed Birx about the change in the models she cited: “Early this coming week we’re going to reach 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus and those models that you’re citing now talk about close to 150,000 deaths by August; what happened, doctor?”

Birx said the task force continues to “stand by” models that showed that up to 2.4 million Americans could die if no actions were taken to slow the spread of the virus, a model that also predicted up to 240,000 deaths with stay-at-home orders implemented.

After Wallace pressed Birx further on her changed prediction and whether the White House “underestimated” the virus, the doctor then appeared to deflect in her answer. 

Birx pointed to “different models” the task force had used all along and added that front-line workers had done “incredible work” to keep mortality rates lower than Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom, three other countries hard hit by the virus. 

Tangent

President Trump has been forced to shift his death toll estimate upwards as well: he originally predicted the U.S. death toll would reach 60,000 deaths, but has since revised that total higher, to 100,000.

Key background

Coronavirus models can vary widely but are used by officials to make public health decisions based on potential impact. The federal government utilizes multiple models to inform its efforts against the pandemic.

Big number

The New York Times
NYT
reported earlier this month that an internal federal assessment projected that the number of deaths from coronavirus in the U.S. would increase to 3,000 a day by June as states begin to reopen. Currently, around 1,000 people are dying each day from the virus. 

Further reading

Trump Attacks Columbia University For Study Showing Inaction Caused More Death: ‘Liberal, Disgraceful Institution’ (Forbes)

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We’re Headed — And Why They Disagree (FiveThirtyEight)

Models Project Sharp Rise in Deaths as States Reopen (New York Times)

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