Gardner, Grassley Back Vote On Supreme Court Nominee, Boosting Odds Of Confirmation

Topline

Sens. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said Monday they would support voting on a Supreme Court nominee, making it much more likely that President Trump’s pick to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg will make it to the bench.

Key Facts

With a 53-seat majority in the Senate and Vice President Mike Pence as a tie-breaker, Republicans can only afford three defections if they want to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg before Election Day.

Two Republicans, Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) have said they do not support voting on a nominee before the election, though notably neither commented on voting during the lame duck session and did not say how they would vote if it came to the Senate floor.

But so far, most other Republicans, including those in hotly contested reelection battles like Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), have stood by Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on confirming a nominee.

Along with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) – who has not yet commented – Gardner, considered the most likely Republican to lose reelection in November, had been thought to be one of the most likely Republicans to defect.

But in a statement, Gardner said he would vote for a “qualified” nominee who “will protect our Constitution, not legislate from the bench, and uphold the law.”

Grassley had also been thought to be a defection risk, but he told the Des Moines Register on Monday that he wouldn’t oppose holding hearings or a vote on a nominee, though in 2018 he had said he wouldn’t hold hearings in an election year if he were the Senate Judiciary Chair.

Surprising Fact

As many as 17 Republican senators said at one time or another that they would oppose confirming a nominee this year, though several have already switched their positions including Senate Judiciary Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

Chief Critic

Democrats have vowed to do everything in their power to prevent Trump from confirming a nominee. “We have arrows in our quiver,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Sunday, replying “we have our options” when asked if she would launch renewed impeachment proceedings against Trump to stymie his efforts.

What To Watch For

Trump said Monday he narrowed down his list of potential nominees to five women and that he will probably announce his choice by Friday. The candidates reportedly atop the list is Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a devout Catholic and abortion opponent with scant judicial experience, having been confirmed to the Seventh Circuit in 2017. Also in consideration is Eleventh Circuit Judge Barbara Lagoa, who has considerably more judicial experience than Coney Barrett but may raise issues for senators demanding a nominee with a hardline conservative stance on Roe v. Wade.


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