Giants Free-Agency Activity Leaves Oddsmakers Unimpressed

The New York Giants just can’t seem to catch a break these days from the oddsmakers. 

According to BetOnline, the Giants’ over/under for wins in 2020 is set at 6.5. That’s not a promising forecast for a team that in the last two seasons has won just nine games and who desperately is looking to reverse its misfortunes and become competitive again after changing its coaching staff for the third time in the last five years.  

We’re still a long way off from knowing what the Giants’ 53-man roster will look like—there is still the draft, which NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, in a memo sent to all 32 clubs earlier this week, will proceed as scheduled for April 23-25. 

There is still a matter of new head coach Joe Judge and his staff getting the players on the field to teach then the concepts, something that will have to wait given the postponement of the off-season program due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is the 6.5-win forecast fair?

Although the Giants did upgrade in some spots, what they didn’t do that is likely to drive bettors to take the under is address their most glaring needs. Those include a long-term answer at offensive tackle, center, free safety, and finding a No. 1 edge rusher.

While some of those needs will be addressed in the draft, there is usually a learning curve for a rookie coming out of college. 

Add in the disruption to the off-season program, and there is just far too much uncertainty to gauge how the Giants will be affected.

Did the Giants Upgrade in Free Agency?

The Giants’ approach to free agency is interesting in that most of the players signed replaced guys who were either cut, retired, or not brought back.

In other words, there was a one-for-one swap with compatible or better talent, which, while usually the idea in free agency, hasn’t exactly pushed the needle forward enough to say for sure if the Giants upgraded this off-season via free agency.

One thing they did do, at least on the defensive side of the ball, is replace the former Cardinals players for whom now-former defensive coordinator James Bettcher likely lobbied with guys that the current coaching staff worked at a previous stop. 

Let’s look at the breakdown of the major free agent signings:

In: Edge Kyler Fackrell (via Green Bay)

Out: Edge Kareem Martin (cut), Markus Golden (unsigned free agent)

As the Giants did with Golden last year, they are doing with Kyler Fackrell, who in 2018 was coached by Giants defensive coordinator Patrick Graham and who recorded 10.5 sacks that season.

Last year Fackrell saw his pass rush production fall off a cliff as the Packers added Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith to the defense. The Giants are hoping Fackrell can match or exceed his 2018 production again. 

Although the Giants made the swap, they’re probably not done adding pass rushers. It will be interesting to see if, in the draft, they select Clemson all-purpose defender Isaiah Simmons with their first pick and defer on an offensive tackle until Day 2. 

Simmons could potentially give the Giants what they hoped to get from Kareem Martin and then some, which is a strong cover guy whose versatility should enable him to fit into just about any scheme or personnel package.

In: ILB Blake Martinez (via Green Bay)

Out: Alec Ogletree (cut)

After an impressive first season with the Giants in which he recorded an 84.9 rating in coverage, Ogletree was unable to build on his 2018 production. In 2019, his coverage rating shot up to 116.2

Martinez meanwhile had his best year in coverage last season, posting a 93.1 rating after seeing 20 more pass targets against him. 

 Martinez also has recorded at least 140 total tackles in each of the last three seasons, and, given that he worked with defensive coordinator Patrick Graham in 2018, he should be able to hit the ground running. 

In: TE Levine Toilolo (via 49ers)

Out: Rhett Ellison (retired)

Ellison’s season-ending concussion last year likely swayed his decision to call it a career, but before reaching that point, Ellison’s play had started to deteriorate, specifically his blocking. 

Per Pro Football Focus, Ellison allowed no pressures in 2017, his first year with the Giants. But over the last two seasons, he allowed six, his run blocking, in particular, falling off.

Toilolo, who comes from the same programs (Stanford and the 49ers) that produced Kaden Smith for the Giants, has been more solid. He’s allowed just three pressures in the last two seasons and no sacks in the previous three.

In: OT Cam Fleming (via Dallas)

Out: Mike Remmers (to Kansas City)

The addition of Fleming is one of the most underrated made by the team so far this off-season. While initially it looks like a one-for-one swap for Mike Remmers, who signed with eh Chiefs, the addition of Fleming gives the Giants an experienced veteran who can play both tackle spots.

This is important because the Giants can now, if they wish, wait until the second round if the value on an offensive tackle is better because they have Fleming to be their starting right tackle. 

If the Giants do draft a tackle on Day 2, then come next year when it becomes financially prudent to trim left tackle Nate Solder from the roster, Fleming, if his one-year contract is extended, can fill whatever side is open. 

In: DB/Special Teams Contributor Nate Ebner (via New England)

Out: DB/Special Teams Contributor Antonio Hamilton, DB/Special Teams Captain Michael Thomas (unsigned free agent)

In a move that comes as no surprise, head coach Joe Judge, the Patriots special teams coordinator before coming to New York, brought over one half of his special teams dynamic duo from the Patriots, Nate Ebner.

Ebner, who, along with Matthew Slater, accounted for 57 regular-season tackles on special teams over the last three seasons, including 18 last year for New England.  

It is thought that Ebner, a defensive back, will pair with Cody Core, whom the Giants re-signed this off-season, as the gunners. Core by himself was pretty impressive, and having Antonio Hamilton opposite of him gave the Giants one of the better punt coverage units in the NFL. Adding Ebner to the mix just made that unit even better.

In: CB James Bradberry (via Carolina)

Out: CB Janoris Jenkins (cut last year)

When the Giants added all those young cornerbacks in last year’s draft, Gettleman was looking forward to veteran Janoris Jenkins serving as a mentor.

Unfortunately, as the Giants season fell apart, so too did Jenkins’ time with the Giants, who cut him after he issued a slur against a fan during a social media exchange. 

These days, Jenkins is with the Saints, his mentorship role filled by James Bradberry. Bradberry is only 26 years old and is a relatively young veteran himself, but he’s also a player with who Gettleman is very familiar since he drafted Bradberry in the second round of the 2016 draft for the Carolina Panthers.

Besides leadership, Bradberry, who held his own against some of the NFC South’s toughest reciters, figures to help boost a Giants pass defense that last year finished 28th in the NFL. Bradberry has performed well in both man and zone coverage and is no stranger to traveling with the opponent’s top receiver.

Bradberry’s 77.9 NFL rating would have been the best mark of any Giants cornerback last year if he had been on the team, so it’s clear that he knows a thing or two about how to pick up route tendencies used by receivers and defeat them at their own game.

Now it’s just a matter of continuing to do so with the Giants while sharing some of those tendencies with his new teammates.

In: QB Colt McCoy (Washington)

Out: Eli Manning (retired)

In an ideal world, the Giants will never have to call on their backup quarterback to play, regardless of who he is. But with starter Daniel Jones having already missed time due to injury, New York likely realizes that it better have a solid backup plan. 

Former Washington backup Colt McCoy gives the Giants an experienced backup who has not only started games but who is the longest-tenured quarterback in the NFC East. That experience certainly wasn’t lost of the Giants and can be valuable to Jones as he enters his second season.